Is America on the brink of a second civil war? One year ago today there was a deadly attack on the US Capitol. Now, a CIA advisor is warning that the unthinkable may yet happen.
US generals fear potential for ‘lethal chaos’
Is America on the brink of a second civil war? One year ago today there was a deadly attack on the US Capitol. Now, a CIA advisor is warning that the unthinkable may yet happen.
"A house divided against itself cannot stand." This was the dire warning that Abraham Lincoln delivered to his country in 1858. Three years later, 11 states in the South seceded from the USA. Ultimately 620,000 Americans would die in the brutal civil war that followed.
That war left a deep wound in the American psyche. And for those who looked on one year ago today as some 2,000 people stormed the US Capitol BuildingThe building in Washington DC that hosts the House of Representatives and the Senate. It was built during the Civil War., trying to prevent the verification of Joe Biden's election victory, those dark days seem closer than ever.
Today, Biden will address his country on the anniversary of that attack. He has stated that he will "speak to the truth" of the event, a clear rebuke to his predecessor, who has spread lies and fake news about the election being "stolen" from him.
Biden knows that many of the divides over which the country fought the civil war are still present in other forms. The North and South generally back opposing presidential candidates, and have different laws on key issues, such as gun ownership, voting rights and abortion.
And some fear these divisions might boil over once again. In a book out next year, political scientist Barbara WalterِAn American political scientist who works on the causes of civil wars and terrorism. She also has a role advising the CIA. warns that the USA is "closer to a civil war than any of us would like to believe".
She is not the only one predicting catastrophe. Last month, three retired generals warned that the US military must prepare for similar attacks in the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election.
Walter believes that the USA is no longer a democracy, but an "anocracy", which is "somewhere between a democracy and an autocratic state". She points out that Republicans are passing legislation that will make it harder for Democratic-leaning groups - like young people, women and ethnic minorities - to vote.
And she accuses them of seizing control of the Supreme CourtThe highest court within the hierarchy of courts in most legal jurisdictions., the judicial body that is supposed to be independent of party politics.
She thinks these moves will deepen the gulfs that are already rife in American society, and could ultimately lead to war.
Others think a civil war is unlikely. Generally, insurrections only succeed where the military is weak, or its members defect to the rebel side. The US military is the most powerful force the planet has ever seen, and it is still loyal to the state. It would quickly put down any rebellion.
But other kinds of conflict could still break out. Some have warned of the risk posed by militias. Far-right groups like the Proud BoysThe far-right organisation is dedicated to starting street brawls with left-wing groups. In 2019, some of its members were convicted of assault in New York. have frequently clashed with Black Lives Matter protesters. In 2020, one extremist group even plotted to kidnap the governor of MichiganA state in the northern USA..
These militias might not be able to take on the US military, but they could still do a lot of harm. America is the most heavily-armed country in the world, with 120.5 firearms for every 100 people. But these weapons are not evenly distributed: in 2017, just 3% of Americans owned 133 million guns between them.
<h5 class=" eplus-wrapper">Is America on the brink of a second civil war?</h5>
Yes: Many Americans already believe the electoral system is rigged against them and their country is being taken over. If only a small number of these people take up arms, they could start a devastating war.
No: Most people, including Republicans, condemned the Capitol riots. There would be little support for a new insurrection, and the army would stamp it out easily.
Or...? A war is unlikely, but the USA is already seeing violent clashes between extremist groups. Many people could suffer and die in this low-intensity conflict, even if it does not become a war.
US Capitol Building - The building in Washington DC that hosts the House of Representatives and the Senate. It was built during the Civil War.
Barbara Walter - ِAn American political scientist who works on the causes of civil wars and terrorism. She also has a role advising the CIA.
Supreme Court - The highest court within the hierarchy of courts in most legal jurisdictions.
Proud Boys - The far-right organisation is dedicated to starting street brawls with left-wing groups. In 2019, some of its members were convicted of assault in New York.
Michigan - A state in the northern USA.
US generals fear potential for ‘lethal chaos’

Glossary
US Capitol Building - The building in Washington DC that hosts the House of Representatives and the Senate. It was built during the Civil War.
Barbara Walter - ِAn American political scientist who works on the causes of civil wars and terrorism. She also has a role advising the CIA.
Supreme Court - The highest court within the hierarchy of courts in most legal jurisdictions.
Proud Boys - The far-right organisation is dedicated to starting street brawls with left-wing groups. In 2019, some of its members were convicted of assault in New York.
Michigan - A state in the northern USA.