The Conservative PartyA British political party. Members are known as Tories. has a strong claim to be the world's oldest political party. Some historians believe it began in 1834, under the leadership of Robert PeelThe UK's Conservative prime minister from 1834 to 1835 and 1841 to 1846. He is known for setting up London's Metropolitan Police Force. . Others trace its origins all the way back to 1688, when a band of so-called Tories opposed the toppling of James IIThe King of England, King of Ireland and as James VII, King of Scotland. He was born in 1633 and died in 1701. .

But that long history could be coming to a screeching halt. A new poll has found that Britain's Labour PartyThe main left-wing political party in the UK. has a 21-point lead over the party in power. That would leave the Conservatives with just 89 seats - fewer than they have ever had.¹

Of course, the polls have got it wrong before. In 2017 they thought a massive victory for Theresa MayThe prime minister of the UK between 2016 and 2019. Her attempts to secure a Brexit deal ultimately failed, resulting in her resignation. was on the way, but in the end she lost her majority in parliament. In 2015 they predicted a tie between the two main parties, but instead David CameronOne of the 14 prime ministers to serve during the Queen's reign. squarely beat Ed MilibandThe British Labour party leader from 2010 to 2015..

Nonetheless, the dire state of the economy supports the polls' grim picture for the Conservatives. InflationAn increase in the price of goods in an economy.  remains stubbornly high and economic growth is sluggish. 

If the Tories do collapse at the next election, it will be a seismic result for one of the most successful political parties in history.

They owe this success largely to their adaptability. Each time they are beaten, they change their ideas and come back stronger. 

For example, in 1945 they suffered a shock landslide defeat to Labour. Many argued they were still wedded to the ideas of the 19th Century, so they adopted many of Labour's policies and came back to win just six years later.

The same happened in 1997. That year marked their worst ever electoral rout, which left them with just 165 seats. Many thought they were finished. 

But then they changed their identity yet again, moving towards the centre ground. In 2010 they came roaring back and have been in power ever since.

Now the strain is starting to show. Different factions in the party openly disagree over what path to take. Many have no qualms about attacking their leader directly.

Some experts think this indicates they have lost their ability to maintain their unity while changing their policies. After this election, they say, Tories might not rally around a new, moderate platform. Tory members seem instead to favour a shift to the right, which could alienate them from voters.

Which is why some think this election really could bury the party forever. It would not, they point out, be the first time a political party has collapsed at the polls. 

In 1993, the Canadian Progressive Conservative Party fell from 156 seats to just two. It never recovered and nine years later had to merge with a different party.

But others think things are not this bad for the Conservatives. The death of the Tory Party has been foretold many times before. As recently as 2019, many journalists confidently predicted that BrexitThe UK's departure from the European Union. would rip the party apart. Instead, Boris JohnsonThe Conservative Prime Minister of the UK and head of the government from 2019 to 2022. led it to its strongest result since 1987.

After a short stint in opposition, they argue, the Conservatives will do what they always do: whip the troops, refresh their platform and go back to winning.

Yes: The Tories have lost their secret weapon: flexibility. Many MPs have become rigid and dogmaticStrongly announcing your beliefs as if they are facts, and being unwilling to change your mind. . Few seem to feel any loyalty to their leader. It is not clear they will ever recover their unity.

No: The Conservatives have been here before. If anything, their divisions in 1997 were even deeper. A period in opposition will focus their minds and they will come back stronger.

Or... The big problem for the Tories is that the political consensus they built in the 1980s, favouring the free marketWhen the government does not interfere with the economy, and the laws of supply and demand dictate trading.  and privatisationWhen a business, industry or service that is run by the government is moved to be run by private companies. , is coming apart. If they cannot abandon it, they risk becoming irrelevant.