The Conservative PartyA British political party. Members are known as Tories. has a strong claim to be the world's oldest political party. Some historians believe it began in 1834. Others trace its origins all the way back to 1688.

But that long history could be coming to a screeching halt. A new poll has found that the UK's Labour PartyThe main left-wing political party in the UK. has a 21-point lead over the party in power. That would leave the Conservatives with just 89 seats - fewer than they have ever had.¹

Of course, the polls have got it wrong before. They were off the mark in two of the last three elections.

Nonetheless, the dire state of the economy supports their grim picture for the Conservatives. InflationAn increase in the price of goods in an economy.  remains stubbornly high and economic growth is sluggish. 

If the ToriesThe Tory Party was the former name of the Conservative Party. The phrase is still used to refer to Conservatives.  do collapse at the next election, it will be a seismic result for one of the most successful political parties in history.

They owe this success largely to their adaptability. Each time they are beaten, they change their ideas and come back stronger. 

For example, in 1997 they suffered their worst ever electoral routDefeat., winning just 165 seats. Many thought they were finished. 

But then they changed their identity, moving towards the centre ground. In 2010 they came roaring back and have been in power ever since.

Now the strain is starting to show. Different factions in the party openly disagree over what path to take. Many have no qualms about attacking their leader directly.

Some experts think this indicates they have lost their ability to maintain their unity while changing their policies. After this election, they say, Tories might not rally around a new, moderate platform. Tory members seem instead to favour a shift to the right, which could alienateMake someone feel disconnected or isolated. them from voters.

But others say the death of the Tory Party has been foretold many times before. As recently as 2019, many journalists confidently predicted that BrexitThe UK's departure from the European Union. would rip the party apart. Instead, Boris JohnsonThe Conservative Prime Minister of the UK and head of the government from 2019 to 2022. led it to its strongest result since 1987.

After a short stint in opposition, they argue, the Conservatives will do what they always do: whip the troops, refresh their platform and go back to winning.

Yes: The Tories have lost their secret weapon: flexibility. Many MPs have become rigid and dogmaticStrongly announcing your beliefs as if they are facts, and being unwilling to change your mind. . Few seem to feel any loyalty to their leader. It is not clear they will ever recover their unity.

No: The Conservatives have been here before. If anything, their divisions in 1997 were even deeper. A period in opposition will focus their minds and they will come back stronger.

Or... The big problem for the Tories is that the political consensusGeneral agreement. It was originally a Latin word. they built in the 1980s, favouring the free market and privatisation, is coming apart. If they cannot abandon it, they risk becoming irrelevant.