Will 2024 change history? This year will see elections held in 64 countries and the European Union. Some experts are calling it the biggest test democracy has ever faced.
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The year half the world goes to the polls
Will 2024 change history? This year will see elections held in 64 countries and the European Union. Some experts are calling it the biggest test democracy has ever faced.
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Lotta ballots
"When the US sneezes, the world catches a cold."1 This phrase has long been used to sum up how the USA dominates the globe.
So it is little wonder the world media is also fixated on its latest election drama. In all the Biden-Trump coverage, you might have missed one fascinating detail: this is the biggest election year ever around the world.
In 2024, fully 49% of the world's population, around four billion people, will cast a vote in a national election.2 Here are eight of the most important elections around the world this year:
Taiwan In January, the TaiwaneseFrom Taiwan, an island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China. people elected centre-left candidate Lai Ching-te to the presidency. He is likely to distance the island further from China.
Pakistan When Pakistan went to the polls last month, everyone thought it was a done deal. Opposition leader Imran KhanA former international cricketer who became the prime minister of Pakistan in 2018, until April 2022. had been imprisoned and his party effectively banned. Yet on the night, rampantSpreading quickly. vote-riggingAnother name for electoral fraud. Illegally interfering with an election to boost votes for one candidate or suppress votes for another. was not enough to stop Khan from taking the winning spot.
Indonesia The most recent big vote was held in IndonesiaA country in south-east Asia, made up of over 17,000 islands. in February. Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, who wants Indonesia to pivot away from the West and towards China and India, took an early lead.3
India From April to May, India will hold the biggest election of all, with 912 million eligible voters.4 Narendra ModiThe prime minister of India. He inspires passionate support from many in his country, but his critics regard him as populist, anti-Muslim and authoritarian. has dominated politics for the last ten years and he remains highly popular. Critics fear he may use a victory as a mandateAuthority from the people to do something, usually given to politicians in an election. to erode Indian democracy further.5
MexicoA country in the southern part of North America. It shares a long border with the USA. Most people in Mexico speak Spanish. In June, Mexicans are likely to elect their first female and first Jewish president, Claudia Sheinbaum. She is a social liberalLiberalism is a school of political thought that stresses individual liberty. Liberals believe that society should not try to impose values or behaviours on individuals but should be tolerant of different lifestyles. A leading exponent of liberal thought was the 19th-century English philosopher John Stuart Mill, the author of the classic work On Liberty. and backs green policies.
EU The European ParliamentThe EU's law-making body. Its members are directly elected by EU voters every five years. used to be a talking shopA place known for unproductive talk rather than meaningful action. , but its power has been growing in recent years. The result is unlikely to be groundbreaking, but even so, organising an election in 27 countries voting in 24 official languages over four days is a feat in itself.
South Africa Since the end of apartheidA system of legally-enshrined racial discrimination and oppression which existed in South Africa from 1948 until the 1990s. It denied non-white South Africans basic human rights. in 1994 the African National CongressA South African political party, which has ruled the country since 1994. It was the party of Nelson Mandela. has won every election. However, South Africa is mired in crisis and some think the ANC's grip on power might falter for the first time this year.
Ukraine Ukraine has been under martial lawThe temporary suspension of civil law and its replacement with direct military control of society and its institutions. since the Russian invasion, meaning that holding an election would technically be illegal. However, Volodymyr ZelenskyZelensky won more than 73% of the vote to become Ukrainian President in April 2019. Incredibly, he once starred in a satirical drama in which his character accidentally wins the Ukrainian presidency. is considering calling one anyway as a gesture of defiance against Vladimir Putin.
Will 2024 change history?
Yes: The world is dividing into two camps clustered around the US and China. Many of these elections will determine which bloc their countries join, or if they stay out of it altogether.
No: Most of the votes cast this year will be in elections that are neither free nor fair. They will change nothing. And even where true democracy prevails, governments will be constrained by an unstable world.
Or... These elections may not all make a huge difference in themselves, but we might regard them as a milestone in the long march towards democracy and rights for everyone on Earth.
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Keywords
Taiwanese - From Taiwan, an island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China.
Imran Khan - A former international cricketer who became the prime minister of Pakistan in 2018, until April 2022.
Rampant - Spreading quickly.
Vote-rigging - Another name for electoral fraud. Illegally interfering with an election to boost votes for one candidate or suppress votes for another.
Indonesia - A country in south-east Asia, made up of over 17,000 islands.
Narendra Modi - The prime minister of India. He inspires passionate support from many in his country, but his critics regard him as populist, anti-Muslim and authoritarian.
Mandate - Authority from the people to do something, usually given to politicians in an election.
Mexico - A country in the southern part of North America. It shares a long border with the USA. Most people in Mexico speak Spanish.
Liberal - Liberalism is a school of political thought that stresses individual liberty. Liberals believe that society should not try to impose values or behaviours on individuals but should be tolerant of different lifestyles. A leading exponent of liberal thought was the 19th-century English philosopher John Stuart Mill, the author of the classic work On Liberty.
European Parliament - The EU's law-making body. Its members are directly elected by EU voters every five years.
Talking shop - A place known for unproductive talk rather than meaningful action.
Apartheid - A system of legally-enshrined racial discrimination and oppression which existed in South Africa from 1948 until the 1990s. It denied non-white South Africans basic human rights.
African National Congress - A South African political party, which has ruled the country since 1994. It was the party of Nelson Mandela.
Martial law - The temporary suspension of civil law and its replacement with direct military control of society and its institutions.
Volodymyr Zelensky - Zelensky won more than 73% of the vote to become Ukrainian President in April 2019. Incredibly, he once starred in a satirical drama in which his character accidentally wins the Ukrainian presidency.
The year half the world goes to the polls
Historic: Elections in these four countries could tilt the balance of power towards China. Glossary
Taiwanese - From Taiwan, an island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China.
Imran Khan - A former international cricketer who became the prime minister of Pakistan in 2018, until April 2022.
Rampant - Spreading quickly.
Vote-rigging - Another name for electoral fraud. Illegally interfering with an election to boost votes for one candidate or suppress votes for another.
Indonesia - A country in south-east Asia, made up of over 17,000 islands.
Narendra Modi - The prime minister of India. He inspires passionate support from many in his country, but his critics regard him as populist, anti-Muslim and authoritarian.
Mandate - Authority from the people to do something, usually given to politicians in an election.
Mexico - A country in the southern part of North America. It shares a long border with the USA. Most people in Mexico speak Spanish.
Liberal - Liberalism is a school of political thought that stresses individual liberty. Liberals believe that society should not try to impose values or behaviours on individuals but should be tolerant of different lifestyles. A leading exponent of liberal thought was the 19th-century English philosopher John Stuart Mill, the author of the classic work On Liberty.
European Parliament - The EU's law-making body. Its members are directly elected by EU voters every five years.
Talking shop - A place known for unproductive talk rather than meaningful action.
Apartheid - A system of legally-enshrined racial discrimination and oppression which existed in South Africa from 1948 until the 1990s. It denied non-white South Africans basic human rights.
African National Congress - A South African political party, which has ruled the country since 1994. It was the party of Nelson Mandela.
Martial law - The temporary suspension of civil law and its replacement with direct military control of society and its institutions.
Volodymyr Zelensky - Zelensky won more than 73% of the vote to become Ukrainian President in April 2019. Incredibly, he once starred in a satirical drama in which his character accidentally wins the Ukrainian presidency.