Would no deal be a disaster for Britain? Yesterday was deadline day but at the last minute, both sides agreed to carry on talking, despite Boris Johnson warning that failure was likely.
Dire warnings as UK leaves the ‘magic circle’
Would no deal be a disaster for Britain? Yesterday was deadline day but at the last minute, both sides agreed to carry on talking, despite Boris Johnson warning that failure was likely.
At exactly 11 o'clock on January 31st this year, the sound of Big Ben rang out across London on a cold and dreary night to mark a momentous occasion: more than three years after the Brexit referendum, the UK had finally left the EU.
Some were jubilant; in Parliament Square, hundreds braved the rain to hold a party. Others were devastated - in Scotland, demonstrators held a candlelit vigil.
But when dawn broke on 1 February, life remained much the same for many Britons. The UK had entered a transition period: leaders had 11 months to negotiate a new deal for life after Brexit.
Now, this time is running out. Despite days of crunch talks in Brussels, officials have so far failed to reach a trade agreement.
Here, we look at the possible outcomes in five key areas of life if leaders fail to reach a deal by the end of December.
Shopping. If no deal is reached, Britain will trade with the EU on WTO terms. This means that the UK and the EU could put tariffsA form of tax on imports. Each product will have a different tariff - for some EU dairy products, such as French cheese, tariffs in the UK will be more than 30%. on each other's goods.
Tariffs are a source of income for the government, but experts warn they could also raise prices. The UK imports more than 80% of its fresh fruit - if tariffs are imposed, one report suggests that the average family will pay 65 more each year to eat their five a day.
While this is bad news for fruit fans, it could be good news for some British farmers - one supermarket boss said last week that cheese lovers may now choose cheaper Cheddar over French Brie to avoid higher prices.
And despite confusion at the ports, most agree that the supermarkets will not see empty shelves in the New Year - as long as shoppers refrain from panic buying.
Business. Tariffs could affect businesses as well as shoppers - 43% of British exports went to the EU last year. A 10% tariff on imported cars may also hit consumers - new cars could rise in price by up to 1,500.
In the city, despite an estimated extra 15bn price tag per year for paperwork, businesses are hoping their preparationsMany banks which operate in the UK have set up offices in EU countries so they can keep providing services for EU customers while abiding by WTO rules. mean they will avoid any Brexit chaos.
Some say it is French fishermen that will be the loudest losers - if they are banned from fishing in UK water, they plan to blockade French ports and stop British boats entering.
Holidays. Covid-19 restrictions aside, UK citizens will be able to travel to the EU for up to 90 days at a time, but no more than six months in total per year. Britons who want to live in the EU will have to apply for a visa.
In the short term, getting to Europe may prove more difficult than normal - according to Yellowhammer, a leaked government document of worst-case scenarios, there could be a three-month "meltdownThe UK government is hoping to avoid traffic chaos by building a large lorry park in Kent near the port of Dover." at UK ports.
Driving. To drive to Europe, Brits will need to buy an international driving permit for 5.50. But there is bad news for pets: dogs, cats, and ferrets may face a set of stringent new rulesIf the UK becomes "unlisted" under the EU Pet Travel Scheme, all pets will need to be microchipped to enter Europe. Dogs, cats and ferrets will need to be vaccinated against rabies, have a blood sample checked by an approved vet three months in advance and obtain an animal health certificate. to go on holiday.
Phones. In theory, the EU ban on roaming charges will end if there is no trade deal. But Britain's biggest providers say they have no plans to reintroduce the fees.
So, is no deal a disaster?
Absolutely, say some. A no-deal Brexit will be a nightmare for politicians and ordinary citizens alike. Queues on the roads, tariffs on goods, and maybe even the lights going out are bad news for both businesses and consumers. Some economists predict the long-term cost could be three times more than the cost of coronavirus. Both the UK and the EU need to start preparing for the worst-case scenario.
Of course not, say others. Most of the world already operates perfectly well on WTO terms, and the UK will still have access to the EU market. A no-deal Brexit presents a huge opportunity for Britain. Free to make its own rules, the UK could become a trading hub like Singapore or Hong Kong. With the right plans in place, Britain could not only cope with no deal but thrive.
Keywords
Tariffs - A form of tax on imports. Each product will have a different tariff - for some EU dairy products, such as French cheese, tariffs in the UK will be more than 30%.
Preparations - Many banks which operate in the UK have set up offices in EU countries so they can keep providing services for EU customers while abiding by WTO rules.
Meltdown - The UK government is hoping to avoid traffic chaos by building a large lorry park in Kent near the port of Dover.
New rules - If the UK becomes "unlisted" under the EU Pet Travel Scheme, all pets will need to be microchipped to enter Europe. Dogs, cats and ferrets will need to be vaccinated against rabies, have a blood sample checked by an approved vet three months in advance and obtain an animal health certificate.
Dire warnings as UK leaves the ‘magic circle’
Glossary
Tariffs - A form of tax on imports. Each product will have a different tariff - for some EU dairy products, such as French cheese, tariffs in the UK will be more than 30%.
Preparations - Many banks which operate in the UK have set up offices in EU countries so they can keep providing services for EU customers while abiding by WTO rules.
Meltdown - The UK government is hoping to avoid traffic chaos by building a large lorry park in Kent near the port of Dover.
New rules - If the UK becomes "unlisted" under the EU Pet Travel Scheme, all pets will need to be microchipped to enter Europe. Dogs, cats and ferrets will need to be vaccinated against rabies, have a blood sample checked by an approved vet three months in advance and obtain an animal health certificate.