He sends dissidentsPeople who publicly disagree with or criticise an authority or government, especially an oppressive one. to SiberiaA northern region of Russia, known for its harsh winters. It has a long history as a place of exile for criminals and political prisoners., has aggressively occupied territories in three countries and his opponents meet grisly ends.

It is just a day in the life of a 21st Century despotA medieval word for a ruler who exercises absolute power, by implication for the worse.. And he is in good company: Russia has strong ties to other dictators and authoritarians, from Kim Jong-un to Xi Jinping and Bashar al-AssadThe president of Syria since 2000. .

Putin's plans surpass even those of his peers. His ambitions do not end with Ukraine.

Could his rule be cut short? Until now, it has seemed a distant prospect. But some say there are multiple scenarios by which the dictator could be deposed.

Smutniy Putin

Amid a recent coup led by his former allyA country that has agreed to support another one. Yevgeny PrigozhinA Russian oligarch and leader of the Wagner Group, a group of mercenary soldiers. He launched a failed coup against Russian president Vladimir Putin in June 2023. , Putin did not hesitate to draw parallels to Russia's Smutnoye vremya, known in English as "The Time of Troubles". But his allusion may be more prescientAble to predict things or know them in advance. Both prescient and scientist come from the Latin "scire" (to know). than he has considered.

The Time of Troubles was a period of anarchy in the Tsardom of Russia that followed the death of Feodor I, who died without leaving an heir.

In 1604, Poland and Lithuania sponsored a pretenderSomebody who pretends to be something they are not. A pretender to the throne claims to be the rightful ruler of a nation. to the throne who claimed to be the (deceased) son of Ivan the Terrible, Dmitry of Uglich. Called The False Dmitry, his army marched to Moscow and seized the throne.

But False Dmitry's victory was short-lived. He was murdered in 1606, leading to invasion by Poland. What followed was a miserable era of death and destruction which killed up to 1.2 million people.

For Russians well-versed in history, smuta represents an age-old superstition: that failed insurrections are a harbingerSomeone or something that announces the approach of something else. An indicator. for something even worse than political overhaul. By evoking the period, Putin may even be predicting his own death - and Russia's descent into total anarchyA situation in which there are no rulers. The term can be used to describe complete political chaos or mob rule, but those who call themselves anarchists generally believe in mutual aid and cooperation, not a war of all-against-all..

Soviet Successor

Vladimir Lenin died of a stroke. Joseph Stalin died of a haemorrhage. Leonid Brezhnev died of a heart attack. Yuri Andropov died of kidney failure. Konstantin Chernenko died of emphysemaA lung condition that makes it difficult to breathe. .

All of the above were one-time leaders of the Soviet Union. And you may notice a pattern. The majority of Soviet rulers only lost power when they died - even Stalin, one of history's most bloodthirsty dictators. Some experts think that Putin's death is the only thing that will end his reign.

Ruble Revolution

The former oligarchAfter the collapse of the Soviet Union, most of the country's economy fell into the hands of corrupt businessmen who became known as oligarchs. Mikhail Khodorkovsky once asserted that the man with the rifle, a figure that had long symbolised the BolshevikA member of the communist group led by Lenin that took power in Russia in 1917. Revolution and the ability of ordinary people to revolt, had been replaced by the man with the rubleThe Russian currency. It was the first currency in Europe to be decimalised, in 1704..

He meant that power in Russia was in the hands of its corrupt oligarchsAfter the collapse of the Soviet Union, most of the country's economy fell into the hands of corrupt businessmen who became known as oligarchs. Putin cemented his early popularity by cracking down on these oligarchs, although he has since created a new oligarchy that is loyal to him..1 According to him, they could usurpTake power by force or illegal measures. the president easily. Now, some think Putin's billionaire buddies might be the next to stab him in the back, threatened by Russia's economic sanctions.

Divorce, Decolonisation and Dissolution

Russia is home to over 190 ethnic groups and 83 republics and regions. Since war broke out, tension has grown between the central government and regional governments. 

Many believe that Putin will be unseated by civil war breaking out in these disaffected regions, and a growing number of people think that we should prepare for the dissolution of the Russian Federation.

Yes: There are many scenarios by which Putin could be overthrown. His war in Ukraine has reached a boiling point and he is resorting to desperate measures to seem in control. We are seeing the last gasps of a drowning man.

No: History is rarely as dramatic and explosive as we imagine it to be. As much as people like to fantasise about uprisings, Putin has been in power for more than two decades, and he will not be easy to unseat.

Or... This may not be the moment that Putin is deposed, but it will feature in the history books as one of the factors in his demise. Big historical events are often formed of a hundred different events and facts that we can only put together in hindsight.