Twelve jurors enter a courthouse in New York. Opposite them sits Donald Trump, the former president of the United States. He is on trial for 34 counts of falsifying business records.

The judge asks the foremanThe person who supervises other workers in the factory. Or, in court, the person chosen to act as a spokesperson for the jury. to read the verdict. In a clear voice, he announces: guilty. According to one witness, "the air in the courtroom turned to stone".¹

According to the prosecution, Donald Trump paid $130,000 (£102,000) to a former adult actress, Stormy Daniels, in the run-up to the 2016 election. The payment was made to keep her relationship with Trump a secret. Lawyers argued that the former president falsely recorded this money as "legal expenses".

Many of Trump's critics hope this scandal will sink his career. "I do think it will have an impact and damage him as a candidate," claims Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of a Republican PartyAlso known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, it is one of the USA's two major political parties. Its first president was Abraham Lincoln. It sits on the right of the political spectrum. pressure groupA group that tries to influence political policy in favour of a specific cause - for example climate change or gun control. trying to move the party away from Trump.²

However, there is no law against someone with a criminal record running for president. According to prominent supporter Hal Lambert: "His poll numbers will go higher after this."³

The judge can award up to four years in prison for each offence, but most legal experts expect a fine. Given that Trump is a first-time offender, for a non-violent crime, a prison term is "unlikely" - according to respected law professor Cheryl Bader.⁴

Polls suggest that Trump is neck and neck with his Democratic rival, President Joe Biden. Because this kind of scandal has never happened before, it is hard to predict the consequences for the campaign.

Trump is also facing three more criminal trials, but none of them are set to begin before late autumn,⁵ when Americans choose their next president. As Trump concluded outside the courthouse: "The real verdict is going to be [on] 5 November."

But could Trump still be the next US president?

Yes: New York is a Democratic state and the prosecutors were outspoken critics of Trump. Turning the courts into a political weapon will only increase support for the former president.

No: Republicans are traditionally the party of law and order. Many supporters will struggle to vote for a convicted felon as their next head of state.

Or... Trump is a historical one-off: the first former president to be convicted of a crime. It's impossible to look at the past to guess what might happen next.