Some 45,000 years ago, humans scraped a difficult living in one of the world's harshest habitable environments: Ice AgeA long period of time in which global temperatures are extremely cold. Europe.

Then one day they woke up to find strangers among them. These people looked similar to them, but a little taller and slighter, and just a few degrees smarter.¹

At first the two lived in peace, some even working together. But over time, as the climate changed, the newcomers proved better suited to the new world that was coming, and the old humans, whom we now call NeanderthalsAn extinct hominid species that lived alongside Homo sapiens until around 40,000 years ago. Their ancestry began in Africa, like ours, but neanderthals migrated to Europe and Asia long before humans. They looked like us but were shorter and stockier with angled cheekbones, prominent brows and wide noses. , disappeared.

Neanderthals are not the only human species we outlasted. At one time, nine different hominidsA group of primates of which only one species exists today - homo sapiens or modern humans. Other human species, or hominids, have now died out. walked the Earth. Now some think we could be on the verge of creating a tenth.

This new species is Artificial General IntelligenceThe hypothetical ability of AI to learn or understand any task that a human can. , or AGI. It is coming soon, possibly even in 2026. And we are already preparing to fill our homes and workplaces with it, just as Homo sapiensThe species to which all modern humans belong. Homo sapiens means "wise man" in Latin. spread across Europe and the world.

ChatGPTAn Artificial Intelligence chatbot released in November 2022. is writing an ever greater portion of what we read in our daily lives, even some newspaper articles. An AI assistant roams your computer, simplifying your tasks. Smart homes have in-built AI to manage the more mundane aspects of our lives.

Some people have even taken to wearing the newest AI gadget, the "life-recorder", which archives everything you and the people around you say and provides summaries on demand so you can organise your life.²

We tend to use these devices like mere tools, and for now that is what they are. AI systems are good at carrying out specific tasks, but they do not really think.

AGI would be something else entirely: an autonomousHaving the freedom to control itself or its life. intelligence, with its own reasoning power, equal to or (most likely) greater than our own. It would be an all-new species.

So can we avoid going the way of the Neanderthals?

We are in a very different position from the other hominid species that died out. We are not hunter-gatherersHumans who lived an ancient way of life in which they foraged for food and occasionally hunted, but did not farm. armed with sharp stones: we have a vast global economy and enormous military power.

But that could make us more vulnerable, not less. The more complex a system is, the more fragile.

If AGI can do most jobs better than humans, then vast swathes of our species will lose their jobs, and thus their living. It is estimated AI could replace around 800 million jobs by 2030.³

In evolutionary terms, it is as if another species managed to hunt all the prey out of our habitat before we even woke up.

A world where most people are unemployable is one of massive unrest and political upheaval. We are already seeing how much damage that can cause.

Competition between nations, which we traditionally thought of as a strength, could prove to be our downfall. Since all the superpowers are keen to get an edge over each other via AI, they will keep investing more and more in it, even if it becomes a threat.

And even if they did realise it was a threat, it would be too late to begin cooperating against it. AI would easily overcome a divided species.

Moreover, AI is not only increasing its own intelligence, but sapping ours. Some evidence shows that humans are getting stupider because of our overuse of AI.

In the next few years a weakened, divided humanity could easily be made extinct - by its own creation.

Is AGI by far the biggest news of the year?

Yes: Tech experts agree AGI is right around the corner, and we still have no strategy for managing it. We could be staring down the barrel of extinction.

No: People in tech have been talking up AGI for years, but they do not have any idea how to get there. AI will cause a certain amount of disruption and then go the way of other overhyped technologies.

Or... AI does not have to be cleverer than us to bring about our extinction. It does not have to want us extinct. We live in an immensely fragile world, and the slightest disruption could bring it all crashing down.

Ice age - A long period of time in which global temperatures are extremely cold.

Neanderthals - An extinct hominid species that lived alongside Homo sapiens until around 40,000 years ago. Their ancestry began in Africa, like ours, but neanderthals migrated to Europe and Asia long before humans. They looked like us but were shorter and stockier with angled cheekbones, prominent brows and wide noses.

Hominids - A group of primates of which only one species exists today - homo sapiens or modern humans. Other human species, or hominids, have now died out.

Artificial General Intelligence - The hypothetical ability of AI to learn or understand any task that a human can. 

Homo sapiens - The species to which all modern humans belong. Homo sapiens means "wise man" in Latin.

ChatGPT - An Artificial Intelligence chatbot released in November 2022.

Autonomous - Having the freedom to control itself or its life.

Hunter-gatherers - Humans who lived an ancient way of life in which they foraged for food and occasionally hunted, but did not farm.