It is the morning of 5 July 2024, the day after the election. For one side, jubilation; for the other, heartbreak. And as each party leader readies their speech, one claiming victory, the other mourning defeat, the news cuts away for a shock announcement: the new House of Commons will be 59 seats smaller. Scotland has secededWhen a group or region withdraws from a larger political entity. In the run-up to the American Civil War, 11 states seceded from the USA and set up a new nation, known as the Confederate States of America or the Confederacy for short. from the United Kingdom.

Could it happen? Many Scottish nationalistsPeople who want Scotland to be an independent country. are hoping so. They think if pro-independence parties in Scotland win a majority of their WestminsterAn area of London known for its government buildings and parliament. seats, they should unilaterallyDeciding on or doing something without asking or agreeing with others. declare independence.

The UK government would certainly reject this as illegal. But supporters believe the democratic mandate they would have received would give them an ironclad moral case.

Would it be a good idea? Scotland and England have been united for a long time, since 1707. They have been in an informal union since 1603, when James VI of Scotland became James I of England.

But union has not always meant harmony. English politicians deposed the Scottish House of Stuart in 1689 and instated Dutch and then German dynasties in its place. Some HighlandsThe Scottish Highlands are a mountainous region in northwest Scotland. Scottish clansClose-knit groups of families. that were late to declare loyalty to the new monarch were massacred.¹

Then, in 1745, Scots rose up in favour of the Stuarts and invaded England. After the uprising was suppressed the British government launched bloody reprisals against the Highlands Scots and tried to stamp out their culture. They even banned the kiltAn item of clothing similar to a knee-length skirt, traditionally worn by Scottish Highlands men. .²

For the next two hundred years, Scottish people played important roles in British politics and were instrumental in spreading its Empire. But many still resented English cultural domination.

It was in the 1970s that Scottish nationalism became a significant force, helping to topple a Labour government. Then in 2007 the Scottish National PartyA political party founded in 1934 that wishes to ultimately make Scotland independent. It is the largest party in Scotland. won enough votes to govern Scotland.

In 2014 it was able to negotiate a referendum on independence, which it lost by a surprisingly narrow margin. Since then it has dominated Scottish politics.

However, this created a dilemma. The UK government is unlikely to allow a new referendum so soon after the last one. But if the SNP does not deliver independence its supporters will abandon it. That is why some want it to try new measures, like a unilateral declaration.

They say England has strangled Scotland's economy and kept it poor. Despite its vast oil reserves, Scotland remains less wealthy than England, with a GDP per capitaA metric that breaks down a country's gross domestic product (GDP) to an amount per person and is calculated by dividing the GDP of a country by its population. of £29,035 compared with £32,763 south of the border.³

And they argue Scotland and England are too culturally different. Scotland is more socially liberal and pro-EU than right-wing Leaver England. They think an independent Scotland would be able to introduce more left-wing laws and rejoin the EU.

Yet polls suggest 55% of Scots oppose independence.⁴ Many fear Scotland could not survive without England. Research has found Scotland would be £11bn poorer every year outside the UK.⁵

And they are not certain Scotland will rejoin the EU and turn into a liberal utopiaThe word was coined by Thomas More (1478 - 1535) in his 1516 work of that name. In Greek, utopia means no place.. Much of Scotland remains deeply traditionalist. And although a majority would want to rejoin, the EU itself might not let them. Spain has said it may veto its accession because it fears Scottish success would fuel CatalanCatalonia is a region of north-eastern Spain with a strong separatist tradition. Catalan is also a language. independence.⁶

Should Scotland leave the UK?

Yes: For too long Scotland's potential has been repressed by English cultural and political dominance. Scots should be able to run their own affairs like any other nation.

No: All the evidence suggests that an independent Scotland would be poorer and more isolated on the global stage. And the UK will likely soon have a more left-wing government, in line with Scottish values.

Or... An independent Scotland would likely be based on massive fossil fuel extraction and sweetheart tax deals with big corporations. So while it might be good for Scots, it would not be good for the world.

Seceded - When a group or region withdraws from a larger political entity. In the run-up to the American Civil War, 11 states seceded from the USA and set up a new nation, known as the Confederate States of America or the Confederacy for short.

Scottish nationalists - People who want Scotland to be an independent country.

Westminster - An area of London known for its government buildings and parliament.

Unilaterally - Deciding on or doing something without asking or agreeing with others.

Highlands - The Scottish Highlands are a mountainous region in northwest Scotland.

Clans - Close-knit groups of families.

Kilt - An item of clothing similar to a knee-length skirt, traditionally worn by Scottish Highlands men.

Scottish National Party - A political party founded in 1934 that wishes to ultimately make Scotland independent. It is the largest party in Scotland.

GDP per capita - A metric that breaks down a country's gross domestic product (GDP) to an amount per person and is calculated by dividing the GDP of a country by its population.

Utopia - The word was coined by Thomas More (1478 - 1535) in his 1516 work of that name. In Greek, utopia means no place.

Catalan - Catalonia is a region of north-eastern Spain with a strong separatist tradition. Catalan is also a language.