It is the morning of 5 July 2024, the day after the election. The news cuts away for a shock announcement: the new House of CommonsThe democratically elected house of the UK Parliament. It consists of 650 Members of Parliament.  will be 59 seats smaller. Scotland has seceded from the United Kingdom.

Could it happen? Many Scottish nationalistsPeople who want Scotland to be an independent country. are hoping so. They think if pro-independence parties in Scotland win a majority of their WestminsterAn area of London known for its government buildings and parliament. seats, they should unilaterallyDeciding on or doing something without asking or agreeing with others. declare independence.

The UK government would certainly reject this as illegal. But supporters believe the democratic mandateAuthority from the people to do something, usually given to politicians in an election. they would have received would give them an ironclad moral case.

Would it be a good idea? Scotland and England have been united since 1603, when James VI of Scotland became James I of England.

But union has not always meant harmony. English politicians deposed the Scottish House of StuartA royal house of Scotland that ended in 1714. in 1689. Some HighlandsThe Scottish Highlands are a mountainous region in northwest Scotland. Scottish clansClose-knit groups of families. that were late to declare loyalty to the new monarch were massacred.¹

Then in 1745 Scots rose up in favour of the Stuarts and invaded England. After the uprising was suppressed the British government launched bloody reprisals against the Highlands Scots and tried to stamp out their culture. They even banned the kiltAn item of clothing similar to a knee-length skirt, traditionally worn by Scottish Highlands men. .²

For the next two hundred years, Scottish people played important roles in British life. But many still resented English cultural domination.

In the 20th Century many turned to Scottish Nationalism. In 2007 the Scottish National PartyA political party founded in 1934 that wishes to ultimately make Scotland independent. It is the largest party in Scotland. won enough votes to govern Scotland, and in 2014 it was able to negotiate a referendumA direct vote by the population of a country on a particular law or issue. on independence, which it lost by a surprisingly narrow margin. Since then it has dominated Scottish politics.

Supporters of independence say England has strangled Scotland's economy and kept it poor. Despite its vast oil reserves, Scotland remains less wealthy than England, with a GDPShort for Gross Domestic Product, the measure of all the goods and services produced inside a country. per capita of £29,035 compared with £32,763 south of the border.³

And they argue Scotland and England are too culturally different. Scotland is more socially liberal and pro-EUEuropean Union. An economic and political union of 27 countries. than right-wing Leaver England. They think an independent Scotland would be able to introduce more left-wing laws and rejoin the EU.

Yet polls suggest 55% of Scots oppose independence.⁴ Many fear Scotland could not survive without England. Research has found Scotland would be £11bn poorer every year outside the UK.⁵

Should Scotland leave the UK?

Yes: For too long Scotland's potential has been repressed by English cultural and political dominance. Scots should be able to run their own affairs like any other nation.

No: All the evidence suggests that an independent Scotland would be poorer and more isolated on the global stage. And the UK will likely soon have a more left-wing government, in line with Scottish values.

Or... An independent Scotland would likely be based on massive fossil fuel extraction and tax deals with big corporations. So while it might be good for Scots, it would not be good for the world.