Mediaeval historians often took note of years where something unusual had happened in nature. The sky turning pink, stars shining brighter or for longer than usual, blood-red moons. Often, without knowing it, they were documenting a meteor shower or a distant volcanic eruption.

Today they would write about little else. This year began with an ice storm that swept across the central USA, blanketing parts of TexasA US state with a population of 29 million. in almost an inch of ice and killing ten people. April unleashed heat waves that drove temperatures in southern Asia up to almost 44 degrees.¹

For the next two months wildfires raged in Canada. The smoke spread across the entire globe and turned the sky across North America orange.

Then in August, more than a million people were displaced by storms in northeastern China. And in September, as temperatures remained eerily high, torrentialFalling rapidly and in huge quantities. rains pelted the MediterraneanA sea connected to the Atlantic Ocean. It has the shores of Europe on one and the shores of north Africa on the other, as well as shoreline in Asia. , causing widespread flooding. In October the rains moved north: three people in the UK died due to storms.

But perhaps the most shocking climate disaster of the year was not even visible. In July, two scientists warned that the Gulf StreamA warm and swift Atlantic Ocean current that follows the eastern coastline of the US and Canada before crossing the Atlantic Ocean towards Europe. It keeps the climate of Western Europe much warmer than it would otherwise be. is slowing down and might collapse as soon as 2025.²

This deep ocean current brings warmer weather to northern Europe. Without it, temperatures there could drop by 10-15 degrees. Rains would be disrupted. AgricultureThe practice of farming and growing food from the land. would be completely devastated.³

2023 may not be an entirely representative year. It is the first year of a new El Nino cycle, in which parts of the Pacific get hotter and spread warm water around the world. It is known this phenomenon can cause short-term heating spikes around the world.

That means as El Nino recedes, temperatures should fall back slightly.

Nonetheless, many believe 2023 will still go down in history as the moment humanity woke up to the dangers of climate breakdown. As records tumbled - hottest day, hottest month, hottest year - and disaster after disaster struck across the globe, the crisis became impossible to ignore even from day to day.

Moreover, this was the year in which scientists issued a "final warning" on the crisis. In March the IPCCThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a global collaboration of top climate scientists to produce annual reports on global warming. declared that, on current trends, by its next report in 2030 we will be locked into 1.5C of heating.⁴

But there is another reason why the historians of 2123 - if historians still exist in 2123 - may be interested in the year 2023 as a tipping point.

Last month it was revealed that the UAEThe United Arab Emirates is a country in the Middle East, and the location of Dubai. , hosts of this year's COP28The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (known as the Conference of the Parties). global climate summit, planned to use the event to make oil deals with 15 countries.⁵ The UAE denied this, but after the summit it ramped up its own oil production.

The president of the event, oil executive Sultan Al Jaber, also claimed phasing out fossil fuels is not necessary to meet the 1.5C target - a position at odds with that of the scientific community and the UNUnited Nations. An intergovernmental organisation based in New York that aims to maintain international peace and security.. Climate scientist Bill Hare said it was "verging on climate denial."⁶

So, some think, 2023 to future historians will be the year in which not only did most ordinary people wake up to the horrors of climate change, but political leaders buried their heads deeper and deeper in the sand.

Yes: We have now "baked in" at least 0.5C of heating by 2045. The only way of avoiding 1.5C now would be to cut carbon emissions to zero within 30 years.⁷ But use of fossil fuels is actually growing, not shrinking.

No: It will be hard to avoid 1.5C, but that is not the be-all and end-all. We can still keep heating below the catastrophic 2C figure if we quickly rein in carbon emissions and reach net zero by 2070.⁸

Or... It is well within our capacity to solve the climate crisis. What is lacking is the political will. Our leaders are fiddling while the planet burns.

Texas - A US state with a population of 29 million.

Torrential - Falling rapidly and in huge quantities.

Mediterranean - A sea connected to the Atlantic Ocean. It has the shores of Europe on one and the shores of north Africa on the other, as well as shoreline in Asia.

Gulf stream - A warm and swift Atlantic Ocean current that follows the eastern coastline of the US and Canada before crossing the Atlantic Ocean towards Europe. It keeps the climate of Western Europe much warmer than it would otherwise be.

Agriculture - The practice of farming and growing food from the land.

IPCC - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a global collaboration of top climate scientists to produce annual reports on global warming.

UAE - The United Arab Emirates is a country in the Middle East, and the location of Dubai.

COP28 - The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (known as the Conference of the Parties).

UN - United Nations. An intergovernmental organisation based in New York that aims to maintain international peace and security.