Mediaeval historians often took note of years where something unusual had happened in nature. The sky turning pink, stars shining brighter or for longer than usual, blood-red moons. Often, without knowing it, they were documenting a meteor shower or a distant volcanic eruption.

Today they would write about little else. This year began with an ice stormA storm of freezing rain that leaves a coating of ice. that swept across the central USA and killed ten people. April unleashed heat waves that drove temperatures in southern Asia up to almost 44 degrees.¹

For the next two months wildfires raged in Canada. The smoke spread across the entire globe and turned the sky across North America orange.

Then in August, more than a million people were displaced by storms in northeastern China. And in September torrential rains pelted the MediterraneanA sea connected to the Atlantic Ocean. It has the shores of Europe on one and the shores of north Africa on the other, as well as shoreline in Asia. , causing widespread flooding.

But perhaps the most shocking climate disaster of the year was not even visible. In July, two scientists warned that the Gulf StreamA warm and swift Atlantic Ocean current that follows the eastern coastline of the US and Canada before crossing the Atlantic Ocean towards Europe. It keeps the climate of Western Europe much warmer than it would otherwise be. is slowing down and might collapse as soon as 2025.² That could make temperatures there drop by 10-15 degrees.³

That is why many believe 2023 will still go down in history as the moment humanity woke up to the dangers of climate breakdown. As records tumbled - hottest day, hottest month, hottest year - and disaster after disaster struck across the globe, the crisis became impossible to ignore.

Moreover, this was the year in which scientists issued a "final warning" on the crisis. In March the IPCCThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a global collaboration of top climate scientists to produce annual reports on global warming. declared that, on current trends, by its next report in 2030 we will be locked into 1.5C of heating.⁴

But there is another reason why the historians of 2123 - if historians still exist in 2123 - may see the year 2023 as a tipping point.

Last month it was revealed that the UAEThe United Arab Emirates is a country in the Middle East, and the location of Dubai. , hosts of this year's COP28The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (known as the Conference of the Parties). global climate summit, planned to use the event to make oil deals with 15 countries.⁵

The president of the event, Sultan Al Jaber, also claimed phasing out fossil fuels is not necessary. Climate scientist Bill Hare said it was "verging on climate denial."⁶

So, some think, 2023 to future historians will be the year in which not only did most ordinary people wake up to the horrors of climate change, but political leaders buried their heads deeper and deeper in the sand.

Yes: We have now "baked in" at least 0.5C of heating by 2045. The only way of avoiding 1.5C now would be to cut carbon emissions to zero within 30 years.⁷ But use of fossil fuels is actually growing, not shrinking.

No: It will be hard to avoid 1.5C, but that is not the be-all and end-all. We can still keep heating below the catastrophic 2C figure if we quickly rein in carbon emissions and reach net zero by 2070.⁸

Or... It is well within our capacity to solve the climate crisis. What is lacking is the political will. Our leaders are fiddling while the planet burns.