The Conservative PartyA British political party. Members are known as Tories. has a strong claim to be the world's oldest political party. Some historians believe it began in 1834. Others trace its origins all the way back to 1688.

But that long history could be coming to a screeching halt. A new poll has found the UK's Labour PartyThe main left-wing political party in the UK. has a 21-point lead over the party in power. That would leave the Conservatives with just 89 seats - fewer than they have ever had.¹

Of course, the polls have got it wrong before. They were off the mark in two of the last three elections.

Nonetheless, the state of the economy supports their grim picture for the Conservatives. InflationAn increase in the price of goods in an economy.  remains high and economic growth is slow. 

It would be a stunning reversal. The Tories are one of the most successful parties in history.

They owe this success largely to their adaptability. Each time they are beaten, they change their ideas and come back stronger. 

For example, in 1997 they suffered their worst ever electoral result, winning just 165 seats. Many thought they were finished. 

But then they changed their identity, moving towards the centre ground, and won again in 2010.

Now the strain is starting to show. Different groups in the party openly disagree over what path to take, and some even attack their own leader.

Some experts think this indicates they have lost their ability to change their policies but keep their unity.

But others say the death of the Tory Party has been foretold many times before. As recently as 2019, many journalists confidently predicted that BrexitThe UK's departure from the European Union. would rip the party apart. Instead, Boris JohnsonThe Conservative Prime Minister of the UK and head of the government from 2019 to 2022. led it to its strongest result since 1987.

After a short time in oppositionBeing against something. , they argue, the Conservatives will do what they always do: whip the troops, refresh their platform and go back to winning.

Yes: The Tories have lost their secret weapon: flexibility. Many MPs have become rigid and dogmaticStrongly announcing your beliefs as if they are facts, and being unwilling to change your mind. . Few seem to feel any loyalty to their leader. It is not clear they will ever recover their unity.

No: The Conservatives have been here before. If anything, their divisions in 1997 were even deeper. A period in opposition will focus their minds and they will come back stronger.

Or... The big problem for the Tories is that the political consensus they built in the 1980s, favouring the free marketWhen the government does not interfere with the economy, and the laws of supply and demand dictate trading.  and privatisationWhen a business, industry or service that is run by the government is moved to be run by private companies. , is coming apart. If they cannot abandon it, they risk becoming irrelevant.