Don or die

It happens like this. Donald Trump loses the election. But Republican-governed states that voted for Biden claim the vote was rigged. They swap in their own slates of Trump-loyal electors to the Electoral CollegeDuring a US presidential election, people vote for electoral college members to represent their state. The number of electoral college votes depends on the population of the state. Then, the members of the electoral college vote to elect the next president. , which duly votes for the defeated candidate. Trump is sworn in as president - completely legally.

That is what Trump hoped would happen in 2020. And it could still happen in 2024.

That is, if he does not win outright. The chances of a Trump victory in November have been put at 55%.

Whether or not he wins it fair and square, if Trump returns to the White HouseThe official residence of the US president, in Washington DC. Burnt by British troops in 1814, it was rebuilt and painted white to hide the smoke stains., many fear 2024 could be the last ever US presidential election.

After all, Trump has said that he will be a dictatorA ruler who has total power, and has often taken power by force. "on day one" of his presidency. He has promised to appoint a special prosecutorIn the USA, a special prosecutor is an independent person who looks into wrongdoing when there may be conflicts of interest. to target Joe Biden and his entire family, as well as other political opponents.

Some think this is overblown. Trump has already been president once, they say. In that time he did not dismantle American democracyA system of government based on the idea of rule by the people..

But others fear a second Trump term would be quite different from the first. Trump is still furiously resentful over his defeat in 2020. This time he is out for revenge.

Moreover, they claim for most of his first term his advisors reined in his worst instincts. This time he plans to appoint only loyalistsLoyalists believe Northern Ireland should remain a part of the UK and are usually Protestants. who will pursue his agenda and help him concentrate power in his own hands.

His party has changed too, they argue. In 2016-20 the bulk of the Republican PartyAlso known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, it is one of the USA's two major political parties. Its first president was Abraham Lincoln. It sits on the right of the political spectrum. was still anti-Trump. Key Republican figures, like Mike PenceAn American politician who was vice president of the USA under Donald Trump. , refused to go along with his plan to overturn the 2020 election.

But Trump has changed the face of the Republican Party. Fully 78% of Republican voters believe Biden did not win the 2020 election. That means today, Republicans are much more likely to help Trump overturn an election.

Will Trump win?

Yes: Joe Biden has some of the worst ratings of any president. Polls show people have more trust in Trump to run the economy and handle global affairs. And if he loses he may just overturn the result.

No: The US economy is on the up. By November, the American people will feel richer and happier, and they will reward Biden for that. In the end, Americans will not willingly watch their democracy collapse.

Or... A huge majority of Americans do not want their only choices for president to be Trump and Biden. The fact that these poor candidates have been foisted on them anyway is already a crisis for democracy.