Will Trump win? As President Biden struggles, many experts warn it is time to start preparing for a second Trump term — one that could shake the foundations of US democracy itself.
This could be the year... US democracy dies
Will Trump win? As President Biden struggles, many experts warn it is time to start preparing for a second Trump term - one that could shake the foundations of US democracy itself.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading eplus-wrapper"><strong>Don or die</strong></h2>
It happens like this. Donald Trump loses the election. But Republican-governed states that voted for Biden claim the vote was rigged. They swap in their own slates of Trump-loyal electors to the Electoral CollegeDuring a US presidential election, people vote for electoral college members to represent their state. The number of electoral college votes depends on the population of the state. Then, the members of the electoral college vote to elect the next president. , which duly votes for the defeated candidate. Trump is sworn in as president - completely legally.
That is what Trump hoped would happen in 2020. And it could still happen in 2024.
That is, if he does not win outright. The chances of a Trump victory in November have been put at 55%.
Whether or not he wins it fair and square, if Trump returns to the White HouseThe official residence of the US president, in Washington DC. Burnt by British troops in 1814, it was rebuilt and painted white to hide the smoke stains., many fear 2024 could be the last ever US presidential election.
After all, Trump has said that he will be a dictatorA ruler who has total power, and has often taken power by force. "on day one" of his presidency. He has promised to appoint a special prosecutorIn the USA, a special prosecutor is an independent person who looks into wrongdoing when there may be conflicts of interest. to target Joe Biden and his entire family, as well as other political opponents.
Some think this is overblown. Trump has already been president once, they say. In that time he did not dismantle American democracy.
They point out that the American political system is almost 250 years old. It has survived existential threats, like the Nullification CrisisA political crisis in the USA in 1832 and 1833 involving a dispute between South Carolina and the federal government. of 1833, in which South CarolinaA southeastern US state with a population of 5 million. almost went to war with the federalIn the USA laws are made both by individual states and the federal government, which governs all states together. state, and the secessionThe act of withdrawing from a political body or group. of the southern states in 1861, which led to the American Civil WarA war fought from 1861 to 1865 between the slave states of the South and the free states of the North, after the former seceded from the Union..
But others fear a second Trump term would be quite different from the first. Trump is still furiously resentful over his defeat in 2020. He is in a rage over the 91 criminal charges levelled against him since he left office. This time he is out for revenge.
Moreover, they claim for most of his first term he was surrounded by old hands in the Republican PartyAlso known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, it is one of the USA's two major political parties. Its first president was Abraham Lincoln. It sits on the right of the political spectrum. who reined in his worst instincts. This time he plans to appoint only loyalists who will pursue his agenda and help him concentrate power in his own hands.
His party has changed too, they argue. In 2016-20 the bulk of the Republican Party was still anti-Trump. Key Republican figures, like Mike PenceAn American politician who was vice president of the USA under Donald Trump. , refused to go along with his plan to overturn the 2020 election.
But Trump has changed the face of the Republican Party. Fully 78% of Republican voters believe Biden did not win the 2020 election. That means today, Republicans are much more likely to help Trump overturn an election.
Will Trump win?
Yes: Joe Biden has some of the worst ratings of any president. Polls show people have more trust in Trump to run the economy and handle global affairs. And if he loses he may just overturn the result.
No: The US economy is on the up. By November, the American people will feel richer and happier, and they will reward Biden for that. In the end, Americans will not willingly watch their democracy collapse.
Or... A huge majority of Americans do not want their only choices for president to be Trump and Biden. The fact that these poor candidates have been foisted on them anyway is already a crisis for democracy.
Electoral College - During a US presidential election, people vote for electoral college members to represent their state. The number of electoral college votes depends on the population of the state. Then, the members of the electoral college vote to elect the next president.
White House - The official residence of the US president, in Washington DC. Burnt by British troops in 1814, it was rebuilt and painted white to hide the smoke stains.
Dictator - A ruler who has total power, and has often taken power by force.
Special prosecutor - In the USA, a special prosecutor is an independent person who looks into wrongdoing when there may be conflicts of interest.
Nullification Crisis - A political crisis in the USA in 1832 and 1833 involving a dispute between South Carolina and the federal government.
South Carolina - A southeastern US state with a population of 5 million.
Federal - In the USA laws are made both by individual states and the federal government, which governs all states together.
Secession - The act of withdrawing from a political body or group.
American Civil War - A war fought from 1861 to 1865 between the slave states of the South and the free states of the North, after the former seceded from the Union.
Republican Party - Also known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, it is one of the USA's two major political parties. Its first president was Abraham Lincoln. It sits on the right of the political spectrum.
Mike Pence - An American politician who was vice president of the USA under Donald Trump.
This could be the year… US democracy dies

Glossary
Electoral College - During a US presidential election, people vote for electoral college members to represent their state. The number of electoral college votes depends on the population of the state. Then, the members of the electoral college vote to elect the next president.
White House - The official residence of the US president, in Washington DC. Burnt by British troops in 1814, it was rebuilt and painted white to hide the smoke stains.
Dictator - A ruler who has total power, and has often taken power by force.
Special prosecutor - In the USA, a special prosecutor is an independent person who looks into wrongdoing when there may be conflicts of interest.
Nullification Crisis - A political crisis in the USA in 1832 and 1833 involving a dispute between South Carolina and the federal government.
South Carolina - A southeastern US state with a population of 5 million.
Federal - In the USA laws are made both by individual states and the federal government, which governs all states together.
Secession - The act of withdrawing from a political body or group.
American Civil War - A war fought from 1861 to 1865 between the slave states of the South and the free states of the North, after the former seceded from the Union.
Republican Party - Also known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, it is one of the USA's two major political parties. Its first president was Abraham Lincoln. It sits on the right of the political spectrum.
Mike Pence - An American politician who was vice president of the USA under Donald Trump.