The history of Israel and PalestineAn area located in the Southern Levant region of Western Asia. is written in bloodsoaked dates. 1948: the founding of Israel and what Palestinians call the NakbaMeaning "catastrophe" in Arabic, used to refer to the displacement of Palestinians during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. . 1967: the Six-Day WarA 1967 conflict lasting six days between Israel and its Arab neighbours. Israel won, capturing large amounts of land. , when Israel crushed its neighbours. Now, 7 October 2023: the single bloodiest day in Israeli history.

Yesterday, three days after a surprise attack on Israeli soil by Palestinian militant group HamasA militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK., the death toll among Israelis stood at 700, with around 100 people thought still to be captive in GazaThe smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, bordered by Israel and Egypt. . Israeli airstrikes have killed 400 Palestinians.

Both numbers are certain to rise. Israel is not yet sure that there are no more Hamas fighters on its territory. New attacks could break out at any moment. Israel has cut off supplies of electricity, food and water to Gaza and is thought likely to launch a ground offensive. The last such action, in 2014, resulted in well over 2,000 deaths.

Amid all the horror, many have turned their eyes 1,000 miles east to IranA country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million. , where there was jubilation over the attacks. Little wonder some see Iranian fingerprints on the Hamas assault.

Experts think it is unlikely that Iran actually participated in organising it. Preparations, first begun two years ago, were top secret: even many of the group's own leaders were unaware of them.¹ They would not have risked telling Iran and having it leak to Israel.

However, even if Iran was not involved in the plans for the assault, few analysts think they would have gone ahead without a green light from their most powerful ally. It is thought Hamas informed Iran of the plans last Monday.²

That is why some think this is bigger than Israel and Palestine. The world map, they say, is being redrawn. Iran, Russia and China are steadily forming into a unified bloc defined by opposition to US power. And they are recruiting allies everywhere, from VenezuelaAn oil-producing country in South America. to Syria to Gaza.

Others think this is far-fetched. Russia has long cultivated close ties with Israel. It is hardly likely to throw them away. China wants to be seen as a mediator, not an ally of Hamas, which is why it has restated its support for a two-state solutionA proposed solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, which imagines an independent State of Palestine as well as the State of Israel. .³

Some experts say if the region is being reshaped it is by Israel itself.

In the last few years, Israel has developed its ties with surrounding powers to increase its influence in the Middle East. In 2020, it agreed deals with Bahrain, the UAE and Morocco. But the real prize is Saudi Arabia, which is inching ever closer to an agreement.

Experts say Hamas was hoping to make a deal impossible. Saudi Arabia wants to be the leader of the Arab world. It would be embarrassing to sign a deal with Israel while it is at war with an Arab people.

Palestinians say Israel is using its growing strength to drive them off what remains of their land. Last year was the deadliest ever in Palestine, with 225 people killed.⁴ Israel is now making plans to annex the West BankA landlocked territory bordered by Israel, Jordan and the Dead Sea. It is the largest of the Palestinian territories. .⁵ Some Palestinians fear that one day Palestine will cease to exist.

That is why some say this attack was not masterminded by a new anti-western world order - but rather by Hamas acting on its own.

Yes: Iran and Russia have been cooperating for some time in places like Syria and Ukraine. They know they stand to gain from working together, and it makes sense for long-standing Iranian allies like Hamas to join them.

No: Iran pays lip service to the Palestinian cause but does little to help them materially. Russia wants better relations with Israel, not worse. Hamas is acting on its own.

Or... This is not a conspiracy. The coming Israeli offensive may destroy Hamas entirely after the attack on Israeli civilians. Hamas is acting like a group that knows its days are numbered.