Leo Tolstoy's epic novel, Anna Karenina, begins with the line: "All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way."

After all, a happy family has all the ingredients for contentment: money, prosperityHaving lots of wealth and success., security, comfort - and perhaps their fair share of complacencyFeeling of satisfaction with your own work that stops you from trying harder. , too. But unhappy families each have their own reasons for unhappiness - often complex, sprawling and historic reasons, or tensions that time has never quite erodedWorn away. .

Bring on BRICS, perhaps the unhappiest family of all. The group, whose name is an acronym of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, originated in a 2001 coinageThe invention of a new phrase or word. from an economist who predicted that these countries would surpass the Western world to dominate the global economy by 2050.

They have not exactly exceeded expectations. Whilst China's GDP skyrocketed from $6 trillion (£4.72tn) to almost $18 trillion (£14tn) between 2010 and 2021, and India's GDP grew from $1.7 trillion (£1.3tn) to $3.1 trillion (£2.4tn), the economies of Brazil, South Africa and Russia have stagnatedStopped growing. . But this is not the root of their problems.

They meet this week in South Africa for a summit to discuss the future of the blocA group of countries or political parties who have formed an alliance. . But the course of negotiations will not run smooth. India and China are engaged in an aggressive border conflict. Beijing's long-standing rivalry with the US is matched by New Delhi's flirtation with Washington DC. And whilst Russia and China are autocraciesCountries run by one person or small group with complete power. , Brazil, India and South Africa are democracies - if not always functionally.

Most prohibitively, Russia's President Putin is forced to attend the summit via conference call, as South Africa - the host country and a member of the International Criminal Court - would be forced to arrest him for war crimes if he entered the country.¹

On the surface, they are a mish-mash of values, oppositional interests and economic makeups. Their summit resembles a dysfunctionalNot working properly. family reunion, where competing siblings push seethingIntensely angry, to the point of not being able to explain it clearly. resentments and roast dinner around on their plates. And yet, according to the bloc, more than 40 countries have either applied to join BRICS or expressed an interest in doing so.

In a way, it makes sense. Despite the group's divisions, it makes up more than 25% of global GDP. And being a member offers privileged access to China, the bloc's big brother with the second largest economy in the world. It is thought that countries like Iran, Argentina, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey are jostlingStruggling or pushing against each other for prominence. for membership.

The giants of BRICS also stand to gain much by expanding the alliance. For Russia, it offers an alternative to sanctions and its pariahAn outcast. status in the West. For China, it offers new opportunities for geopolitical influence and even expansion. But others are reluctant, believing expansion would put a spanner in their relations with the West.

If BRICS were to expand, it would certainly pose a challenge to the West's dominance. As the group becomes more dilutedMade less strong., it is likely to serve less as an alliance and more as a symbol of Beijing's network of influence in the developing world.

After all, each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. Some break up; some continue bickering in perpetuityLasting forever. ; and some come together to grow stronger.

Yes: If the group expands to take in more members, China will have increased influence over and proximity to those members. Their combined power could threaten the West's position.

No: It is an outdated bloc which should not even still exist. Its members were decided in the early 21st Century, when it looked like Brazil, Russia and South Africa would perform better than they have. Instead, their economies are stagnating.

Or... In reality, the BRICS have quite little in common, where the G7 have a lot of shared principles, ideas, rules and interests. It is not a major threat to the West.