Leo Tolstoy's epic novel, Anna Karenina, begins with the line: "All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way."

Bring on BRICS, perhaps the unhappiest family of all. The group, whose name is an acronym of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, originated in a 2001 coinageThe invention of a new phrase or word. from an economist who predicted that these countries would surpass the Western world to dominate the global economy by 2050.

They have not exactly exceeded expectations. Whilst China's GDP skyrocketed from $6 trillion (£4.72tn) to almost $18 trillion (£14tn) between 2010 and 2021, and India's GDP grew from $1.7 trillion (£1.3tn) to $3.1 trillion (£2.4tn), the economies of Brazil, South Africa and Russia have stagnatedStopped growing. .

They meet this week in South Africa for a summit to discuss the future of the blocA group of countries or political parties who have formed an alliance. . But the course of negotiations will not run smooth. India and China are engaged in an aggressive border conflict. Beijing has a long-standing rivalry with the US whilst New Delhi is on friendly terms. And whilst Russia and China are autocraciesCountries run by one person or small group with complete power. , Brazil, India and South Africa are democracies - if not always functionally.

Most prohibitively, Russia's President Putin is forced to attend the summit via conference call, as South Africa would be forced to arrest him for war crimes if he entered the country.¹

On the surface, they are a mish-mash of values, oppositional interests, and economic makeups. Their summit resembles a dysfunctionalNot working properly. family reunion, where competing siblings push seethingIntensely angry, to the point of not being able to explain it clearly. resentments and roast dinner around on their plates. And yet, according to the bloc, more than 40 countries have either applied to join BRICS or expressed an interest in doing so.

In a way, it makes sense. Despite the group's divisions, it makes up more than 25% of global GDPShort for Gross Domestic Product, the measure of all the goods and services produced inside a country.. And being a member offers privileged access to China, the second largest economy in the world.

If BRICS were to expand, it would certainly pose a challenge to the West's dominance. As the group becomes more dilutedMade less strong., it is likely to serve less as an alliance and more as a symbol of Beijing's growing influence, as the most dominant voice in the bloc.

But each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way. Some break up; some continue bickering in perpetuityLasting forever. ; and some come together to grow stronger.

Yes: If the group expands to take in more members, China will have increased influence over and proximity to those members. Their combined power could threaten the West's position.

No: It is an outdated bloc which should not even still exist. Its members were decided in the early 21st Century, when it looked like Brazil, Russia and South Africa would perform better than they have. Instead, their economies are stagnating.

Or... In reality, the BRICS have quite little in common, where the G7 have a lot of shared principles, ideas, rules and interests. It is not a major threat to the West.