It is the morning of 5 July 2024, the day after the election. The news cuts away for a shock announcement: the new House of CommonsThe democratically elected house of the UK Parliament. It consists of 650 Members of Parliament.  will be 59 seats smaller. Scotland has secededWhen a group or region withdraws from a larger political entity. In the run-up to the American Civil War, 11 states seceded from the USA and set up a new nation, known as the Confederate States of America or the Confederacy for short. from the United Kingdom.

Could it happen? Many Scottish nationalistsPeople who want Scotland to be an independent country. are hoping so. They think if pro-independence parties in Scotland win a majority of their WestminsterAn area of London known for its government buildings and parliament. seats, they should unilaterallyDeciding on or doing something without asking or agreeing with others. declare independence.

Would it be a good idea? Scotland and England have been united since 1603, when James VI of Scotland became James I of England.

But union has not always meant harmony. English politicians deposed the Scottish House of StuartA royal house of Scotland that ended in 1714. in 1689. Some HighlandsThe Scottish Highlands are a mountainous region in northwest Scotland. Scottish clansClose-knit groups of families. that were late to declare loyalty to the new monarch were massacred.¹

Then in 1745 Scots rose up in favour of the Stuarts and invaded England. After the uprising was suppressed the British government launched bloody reprisals against the Highlands Scots and tried to stamp out their culture. They even banned the kiltAn item of clothing similar to a knee-length skirt, traditionally worn by Scottish Highlands men. .²

Supporters of independence say England has strangled Scotland's economy and kept it poor. Despite its huge oil reserves, Scotland remains less wealthy than England, with a GDPShort for Gross Domestic Product, the measure of all the goods and services produced inside a country. per capita of £29,035 compared with £32,763 south of the border.³

And they argue Scotland and England are too culturally different. Scotland is more socially liberalLiberalism is a school of political thought that stresses individual liberty. Liberals believe that society should not try to impose values or behaviours on individuals but should be tolerant of different lifestyles. A leading exponent of liberal thought was the 19th-century English philosopher John Stuart Mill, the author of the classic work On Liberty. and pro-EUEuropean Union. An economic and political union of 27 countries. than right-wing Leaver England. They think an independent Scotland would be able to introduce more left-wing laws and rejoin the EU.

Yet polls suggest 55% of Scots oppose independence.⁴ Many fear Scotland could not survive without England. Research has found Scotland would be £11bn poorer every year outside the UK.⁵

Should Scotland leave the UK?

Yes: For too long Scotland's potential has been repressed by English cultural and political dominance. Scots should be able to run their own affairs like any other nation.

No: All the evidence suggests that an independent Scotland would be poorer and more isolated on the global stage. And the UK will likely soon have a more left-wing government, in line with Scottish values.

Or... An independent Scotland would likely be based on massive fossil fuel extraction and tax deals with big corporations. So while it might be good for Scots, it would not be good for the world.