Conflicting views

Twisted metal and mounded rubble. This was the scene late last Monday, after Israeli war planes destroyed the Iranian consulateThe office in a foreign city where government officials work and look after their citizens in that country. in Damascus, the capital of Syria.

Iran is now preparing to take revenge. Many fear the conflict in Gaza will escalate to involve the entire region. At the same time, Putin's invasion of Ukraine has drawn in Europe and America, and there is also a possibility that China will invade Taiwan, sparking a global war.

In Britain, 53% of people think another world war is likely in the next five to 10 years.¹ Here are five reasons why they are wrong:

Russian overreach. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has used up so many soldiers and weapons, it will not have the capacity to attack anyone else for years. "I suspect that the invasion won't lead to a return to the age of warring civilisation," argues public intellectual Steven Pinker.²

Mad times. Nuclear weapons can bring security. After all, you cannot use an atomic bomb against another country with the same technology without facing a nuclear attack. This is known as Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

Respecting China. The rivalry between America and China could lead to conflict, but foreign policy expert Henry Kissinger, who died last year, believed it is "possible for China and the United States to coexist without the threat of all-out-war".³

Digital dependency. Technology supply chains mean that today the economic cost of a global war would be higher than ever.

Apocalypse now. People are psychologically primed to think they are living through the "end times". As scientific writer Michael Shermer explains, apocalypticReferring to the end of the world, or the collapse of civilisation. visions help us to make sense of a "seemingly senseless world".⁴

But perhaps this is naiveShowing lack of experience or knowledge.. When it comes to conflict, it is better to be safe than sorry. That is why we should always prepare for the worst.

Is this too optimistic?

Yes: The invasion of Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, and the Chinese threat to Taiwan. This is the most dangerous moment in global security since the end of the Cold War.

No: The world is an unstable place, but we should not exaggerate the threat with pessimistic predictions. The world is also much safer and more economically connected than ever before.

Or... It takes more than optimism to stop a war. Preparing for the worst possible outcome, even if it is unlikely, is the best way to stay safe.