<h2 class="wp-block-heading eplus-wrapper">Conflicting views</h2>

Twisted metal and mounded rubble. This was the scene late last Monday, after Israeli war planes destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the capital of Syria.

Iran is a supporter of the regimes in Lebanon and Syria, two of Israel's hostile neighbours. However, an attack on a diplomatic building is a major provocationAn action deliberately intended to make someone angry. and Iran is now preparing to take revenge.

Many fear the conflict in Gaza will escalate to involve the entire region. At the same time, Putin's invasion of Ukraine has drawn Europe and America into indirect conflict with Russia. There is also a possibility that China will invade Taiwan, sparking a global war.

According to a recent poll, 53% of people in Britain think another world war is likely in the next five to 10 years.¹ Here are five reasons why they are wrong:

Russian overreach. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has used up so many soldiers and weapons that it will not have the capacity to attack anyone else for many years. "I suspect that the invasion won't lead to a return to the age of warring civilisation," argues public intellectual Steven Pinker.²

Mad times. Nuclear weapons can bring security. After all, you cannot use an atomic bomb against another country with the same technology, or you will face a nuclear attack. This is known as Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

Respecting China. Many people worry that the rivalry between America and China could lead to conflict. However, foreign policy expert Henry Kissinger, who died last November, believed that it is "possible for China and the United States to coexist without the threat of all-out-war".³

Digital dependency. Technology supply chains mean that even superpowers cannot cut themselves off from the world. Today, the economic cost of a global war would be higher than ever.

Apocalypse now. People are psychologically primed to think they are living through the "end times". As scientific writer Michael Shermer explains, apocalyptic visions help us make sense of a "seemingly senseless world".⁴

But perhaps this is naive. After all, the connected nature of the modern world makes it hard for any conflict to stay contained. That is why we should always prepare for the worst. When it comes to conflict, it is better to be safe than sorry.

Is this too optimistic?

Yes: The invasion of Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, and the Chinese threat to Taiwan. This is the most dangerous moment in global security since the end of the Cold War.

No: The world is an unstable place, but we should not exaggerate the threat with pessimistic predictions. The world is also much safer and more economically connected than ever before.

Or... It takes more than optimism to stop a war. Preparing for the worst possible outcome, even if it is unlikely, is the best way to stay safe.

Provocation - An action deliberately intended to make someone angry.