Through a narrow mountain pass snakes a convoy of 21,000 cars. Many of them have belongings piled up on their roofs - too many for such small and decrepit vehicles, but far too few for the whole families crammed into the seats. They have left almost everything behind: their homes, their communities, and thousands of years of history.

More than 100,000 ArmenianArmenia is a former Soviet republic in the Caucasus region between Asia and Europe. civilians have fled the region of Nagorno-KarabakhA mountainous region of the South Caucasus. The area is disputed by Azerbaijan and Armenia. in the last week, fearing a new round of ethnic cleansingThe systematic forced removal from one area or killing of an ethnic group, with the aim of creating a region that is ethnically homogeneous. at the hands of AzerbaijanA former Soviet Republic between the Caspian Sea and Caucasus mountains. .¹

This crisis has deep roots. In 1918, Armenians and AzerisA Turkic ethnic group mostly living in Azerbaijan. formed separate republics and went to war over ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The conflict only ended in 1920, when the USSRThe United Socialist Soviet Republic, the USA's main rival in the Cold War before it collapsed and broke up into a number of smaller states in 1991. invaded and occupied both countries. They decided that the disputed region would go to Azerbaijan but keep autonomousHaving the freedom to control itself or its life. status.

But in 1991, when the USSR collapsed, the conflict flared up again. When Azerbaijan ended its autonomous status, Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence as the Republic of Artsakh. Azerbaijan and Armenia went to war again, and Armenia won, its forces taking control of the region.

For more than two decades Nagorno-Karabakh remained a de factoSomething that happens in practice, in contrast to that which happens de jure, or according to the law. independent state that was officially part of Azerbaijan. Then in 2020 war broke out again. Azerbaijan recaptured parts of the region in a bloody war in which its soldiers committed terrible war crimes.

Discussions were held on the future of Artsakh, but last year Azerbaijan took matters into their own hands, setting up an economic blockade that caused shortages of vital supplies throughout Nagorno-Karabakh. Then on 21 September Azerbaijani forces moved in and seized the territory.

That does not mean the conflict is over, however. It has created new tensions between Armenia and Russia, which was supposed to protect its smaller neighbour.

Meanwhile Azerbaijan seems to be testing how far it can go. Since 2020 it has repeatedly sent soldiers to occupy Armenian land, committing atrocities against civilians at the same time. We should expect even more incursions in future.

This is causing some to despair of the idea that the world will ever be at peace. According to one estimate, in just 268 of the last 3,400 years has there been no war on Earth.²

Some say the only way of securing peace is through the threat of war. Once Azerbaijan would not have dared to defy Russia by attacking Armenia, they claim. Likewise China can only think of attacking Taiwan because the USA is in retreat.

Others say war cannot be a guarantee of peace. Whether small countries go to war or big ones do, a war is a war.

German philosopher Immanuel KantA German Enlightenment philosopher who is regarded as one of the most important thinkers of the modern era. He fundamentally changed the way we think about a variety of subjects, from aesthetics to cognition to morality. had a different proposal. He suggested that all governments should have republicanSomebody who supports the idea of a country having an elected head of state, such as a president, rather than a hereditary king or queen. constitutions; then they would not go to war with each other. Many modern theorists still believe democracies are less warlike.

Others say there is little proof of this. But many still believe we can achieve world peace only through justice, not through more war.

Yes: Humans are not naturally warlike. We go to war for things: land, resources, honour, pride. If we can give people what they need to live in dignity there will be no need to fight.

No: There will always be people whose thirst for power or glory drives them to make war on others. And because these people will always exist, everyone else must always be armed against them. That makes war inevitable.

Or... Our assumption is everyone wants peace, and we cannot have it because human nature is flawed. But the truth is most governments are quite keen on war. Until that changes, there will be no peace.

Armenian - Armenia is a former Soviet republic in the Caucasus region between Asia and Europe.

Nagorno-Karabakh - A mountainous region of the South Caucasus. The area is disputed by Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Ethnic cleansing - The systematic forced removal from one area or killing of an ethnic group, with the aim of creating a region that is ethnically homogeneous.

Azerbaijan - A former Soviet Republic between the Caspian Sea and Caucasus mountains.

Azeris - A Turkic ethnic group mostly living in Azerbaijan.

USSR - The United Socialist Soviet Republic, the USA's main rival in the Cold War before it collapsed and broke up into a number of smaller states in 1991.

Autonomous - Having the freedom to control itself or its life.

De facto - Something that happens in practice, in contrast to that which happens de jure, or according to the law.

Immanuel Kant - A German Enlightenment philosopher who is regarded as one of the most important thinkers of the modern era. He fundamentally changed the way we think about a variety of subjects, from aesthetics to cognition to morality.

Republican - Somebody who supports the idea of a country having an elected head of state, such as a president, rather than a hereditary king or queen.