Through a narrow mountain pass snakes a convoy of 21,000 cars. Many of them have belongings piled up on their roofs - too many for such small and decrepit vehicles, but far too few for the whole families crammed into the seats.

More than 100,000 ArmenianArmenia is a former Soviet republic in the Caucasus region between Asia and Europe. civilians have fled the region of Nagorno-KarabakhA mountainous region of the South Caucasus. The area is disputed by Azerbaijan and Armenia. in the last week, fearing a new round of ethnic cleansingThe systematic forced removal from one area or killing of an ethnic group, with the aim of creating a region that is ethnically homogeneous. at the hands of AzerbaijanA former Soviet Republic between the Caspian Sea and Caucasus mountains. .¹

This crisis has deep roots, but the current round of conflict began in 1991, when Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence as the Republic of Artsakh. Azerbaijan and Armenia went to war, and Armenia won, its forces taking control of the region.

Then in 2020 war broke out again. Azerbaijan recaptured parts of the region in a bloody war in which its soldiers committed terrible war crimes.

Discussions were held on the future of Artsakh, but last year Azerbaijan took matters into their own hands, setting up an economic blockade that caused shortages of vital supplies throughout Nagorno-Karabakh. Then on 21 September Azerbaijani forces moved in and seized the territory.

That does not mean the conflict is over, however. It has created new tensions between Armenia and Russia, which was supposed to protect its smaller neighbour.

Meanwhile Azerbaijan seems to be testing how far it can go. Since 2020 it has repeatedly sent soldiers to occupy Armenian land, committing atrocitiesTerrible things. against civilians at the same time. We should expect even more incursionsSudden or brief invasions. in future.

This is causing some to despair of the idea that the world will ever be at peace. According to one estimate, in just 268 of the last 3,400 years has there been no war on Earth.²

Some say the only way of securing peace is through the threat of war. Once Azerbaijan would not have dared to defy Russia by attacking Armenia, they claim. Likewise China can only think of attacking TaiwanAn island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China. because the USA is in retreat.

Others say war cannot be a guarantee of peace. Whether small countries go to war or big ones do, a war is a war.

Some theorists believe there would be fewer wars if every country were a democracy. They believe we can achieve world peace only through justice, not through more war.

Yes: Humans are not naturally warlike. We go to war for things: land, resources, honour, pride. If we can give people what they need to live in dignity there will be no need to fight.

No: There will always be people whose thirst for power or glory drives them to make war on others. And because these people will always exist, everyone else must always be armed against them. That makes war inevitable.

Or... Our assumption is everyone wants peace, and we cannot have it because human nature is flawed. But the truth is most governments are quite keen on war. Until that changes, there will be no peace.