Is political violence getting worse? The shooting of Donald Trump has left the USA teetering on the brink. A speech on Thursday could decide whether it descends into civil war.
What Trump SHOULD say on Thursday...
Is political violence getting worse? The shooting of Donald Trump has left the USA teetering on the brink. A speech on Thursday could decide whether it descends into civil war.
In 1933, the Reichstag, the German parliament building, burned to the ground. No-one was sure how it had happened, but Adolf Hitler, the new Chancellor, did not lose a moment. It was, he announced, a CommunistAn economic system entailing collective ownership of all means of production in contrast with capitalism, which holds that industry and businesses are controlled and run for profit by private owners rather than by the government. conspiracy, and he would need emergency powers to deal with the far-left threat.1
He got them. And so began 12 years of horror.
Today it can be hard to understand how Hitler could persuade the Germans to give him so much power. But Weimar GermanyThe government of Germany from 1918 to 1933. had gone through years of violence, with far-right and far-left militiasA militia is an informal armed group operating independently of the state. battling it out on the streets.2
All it took for people to give up their freedom was a would-be dictator to promise to end the violence by destroying his opponents.
Some experts have compared the shooting of Donald Trump on Saturday to the Reichstag fire. They say it could be a turning point after years of growing political violence.
Polls show 10% of Americans now believe in using violence to stop Trump from winning the presidency. That is 26 million people. Around 18 million say they would use violence in favour of Trump.3 It is more than enough to spark a civil warA war between people from the same country. .
That gives Trump a choice. He can seize the moment to unleash new violence against his opponents. Or he can turn to a message of peace to prevent dictatorship and war.
He says he will use a speech on Thursday to promote a harmonious message. But events are already outpacing him. Among his supporters and his opponents alike, wild conspiracy theories are spreading.
Trump fans insist this was a set-up by the left to bait them into a civil war. His foes claim it was a false flagA harmful action designed on purpose so it will look like someone else is responsible. to get him re-elected and then justify a purge of his rivals. Each side believes the other means to do them harm. They may decide to strike first.
So Trump will need a very good speech to end the suspicion and hatred. Here are a few things he could say to restore peace to America and the world.
Ending the cycle. Martin Luther KingThe civil rights leader was shot dead in Tennessee in 1968. once said: "Hate begets hate; violence begets violence".4 When others are violent towards us, we feel we have no choice but to defend ourselves with greater violence. The only way out of this spiral is to renounce violence.
Opponent, not enemy. The founding principle of democracy is that everyone wants what is best for their country; they just have different ideas about how to achieve it. We can only live in harmony if we believe people who disagree with us are not trying to harm us.
End the conspiracies. We live in the same place but we read different news, scroll different social media, listen to different podcasts. We start off unable to understand how the other side even thinks, and end up believing conspiracy theories about their evil doings.
Life outside politics. What we drink, where we shop, the TV we watch: these have all been turned into political decisions. It means we have nothing left in common with the people we disagree with. We need to take the politics out of everyday life.
A new deal. We live in an age of atomisationThe breaking of bonds or splitting of something into smaller groups. and precarityThe state of being uncertain. Often used to talk about living an uncertain or precarious existence, due to not have a stable job or income. . Many people are much poorer and lonelier than they were 20 years ago.5 We cannot end the division without improving people's lives materially.
Is political violence getting worse?
Yes: The last 15 years have seen a wave of attacks on politicians and their families. Millions now support violence against their opponents. Something has to give.
No: The USA has always been a violent place. Many political figures were murdered in past decades, from civil rights leaders to two Kennedy brothers. This is terrible but not out of the ordinary.
Or... It is true that shootings have always been common in the USA, but this is different. Millions of people are in a position to coordinate armed warfare with their opponents. The USA is a powder kegA barrel of gunpowder. Often used to describe a situation which could become very dangerous. .
Communist - An economic system entailing collective ownership of all means of production in contrast with capitalism, which holds that industry and businesses are controlled and run for profit by private owners rather than by the government.
Weimar Germany - The government of Germany from 1918 to 1933.
Militias - A militia is an informal armed group operating independently of the state.
Civil war - A war between people from the same country.
False flag - A harmful action designed on purpose so it will look like someone else is responsible.
Martin Luther King - The civil rights leader was shot dead in Tennessee in 1968.
Atomisation - The breaking of bonds or splitting of something into smaller groups.
Precarity - The state of being uncertain. Often used to talk about living an uncertain or precarious existence, due to not have a stable job or income.
Powder keg - A barrel of gunpowder. Often used to describe a situation which could become very dangerous.
What Trump SHOULD say on Thursday…

Glossary
Communist - An economic system entailing collective ownership of all means of production in contrast with capitalism, which holds that industry and businesses are controlled and run for profit by private owners rather than by the government.
Weimar Germany - The government of Germany from 1918 to 1933.
Militias - A militia is an informal armed group operating independently of the state.
Civil war - A war between people from the same country.
False flag - A harmful action designed on purpose so it will look like someone else is responsible.
Martin Luther King - The civil rights leader was shot dead in Tennessee in 1968.
Atomisation - The breaking of bonds or splitting of something into smaller groups.
Precarity - The state of being uncertain. Often used to talk about living an uncertain or precarious existence, due to not have a stable job or income.
Powder keg - A barrel of gunpowder. Often used to describe a situation which could become very dangerous.