Devil's decade

In 1931, not many people had heard of the Chinese city of Mukden, now known as Shenyang. When a small portion of a railway near the city was blown up on 18 September, few would have paid attention.

None could have known that this tiny event would be the starting gun for the bloodiest conflict in human history.

The Mukden incident, as it is now known, was a false flag by the Japanese Army, which used it as a pretext to invade and occupy northern China. Events spiralled and resulted in an alliance between Japan, fascistFollowing fascism, a set of ideologies that advocates dictatorial power, political violence, suppression of opposition, traditional gender roles, and official racism. Italy, and Nazi GermanyThe German state between 1933 and 1945, when it was ruled by Adolf Hitler's Nazi party., the AxisDuring World War Two, the Axis powers were a military coalition that opposed the Allies. They included Germany, Italy and Japan. powers who fought the AlliesDuring World War Two, an international military coalition including the UK, USA and the Soviet Union. in World War Two.

YemenThe poorest country in the Gulf region is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis. is another place that many in the West will never have heard of before now. But some experts worry that in a hundred years, we might be talking about it in the same way as Mukden.

On Friday, the USA launched air strikes across Yemen on targets linked with the armed group known as the HouthisAn Islamist rebel group that controls a large part of Yemen. They are allies of Hamas in Gaza. . This was a response to the Houthis' own attacks on cargo ships since November, which aimed to disrupt international trade with IsraelA country in the Middle East, and the only Jewish nation in the modern period. It is seen by Jews, Christians and Muslims as the Holy Land. and put it under pressure to end its assault on GazaThe smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, bordered by Israel and Egypt. .

The US hoped this would deter the Houthis from future attacks. On Monday, they got their answer as the group fired on more cargo ships and a US warship.

Then the twist. Early yesterday morning, more than 2,000 km to the north, missiles fell near the US consulateThe office in a foreign city where government officials work and look after their citizens in that country. in the Iraqi KurdishThe Kurdish people are an Iranian ethnic group native to Kurdistan in Western Asia. Kurdish people are minorities in all of the countries they live in. city of Erbil, launched by the military of neighbouring Iran.

The Iranian government claimed it was targeting headquarters of the Israeli spy agency, the MossadThe Hebrew word for "institute". Its full name is the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations, and its motto is a quote from the Bible: "For by wise guidance you can wage your war.".¹ Several Kurdish civilians were killed, among them a prominent local businessman whom Iran insisted had ties with Israel. Iraqi Kurdish prime minister Masrour Barzani said Iran was killing innocent civilians.

Some experts think it is likely the Iranians were sending a message to the US on their Houthis allies' behalf. Although the Houthis are not under Iranian control, they receive funding, weapons and training from Iran.²

What is certain, they say, is that this is an escalation. Iran and the USA have clashed before, but mostly through proxies. Although Iran claimed to be striking targets other than the consulate, the USA may feel it has to respond.

There is a second incentive for this, as some in the US government have concluded that the only way of stopping the Houthis is to strike their suppliers.³

But Iran has strong ties with two other superpowers: Russia and China. They could get involved on behalf of their ally.

And Iran itself is no pushover. It was reported in December that the country had almost enriched enough uranium to make three atom bombsAn atom bomb rapidly releases nuclear energy. .⁴

So this, observers warn, is how we end up with a new world war. Not now, but not far from now.

But others say we are far from the 1930s. Iran is unlikely to step things up beyond here.

For all the talk of a superpower in decline, they point out, the USA is still the greatest military superpower in history. It spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined. Some $40 (£32) out of every $100 (£79) spent on military power around the world is spent by the US.⁵

So Iran, as well as its bigger allies, will blink long before they find themselves in a direct confrontation with the Americans.

Are we back to the 1930s?

Yes: This is how global conflicts break out. Webs of alliances grow. Grievances multiply. Then one little incident in a far-flung part of the globe sets the whole thing on fire.

No: No-one in this conflict wants to go to war. Iran, China and Russia know they have no chance against the US. The US is desperately internally divided and has no wish to embark on another ruinous and expensive conflict.

Or... It is true that no-one involved wants to go to war. But World War One also broke out without anyone involved wanting it. Sometimes things spiral out of control.