Are we back to the 1930s? Twice in the last century, regional tensions ended up setting a fire under a complex web of global alliances and dragged the whole world into war.
War warning on day missile hits US cargo ship
Are we back to the 1930s? Twice in the last century, regional tensions ended up setting a fire under a complex web of global alliances and dragged the whole world into war.
Devil's decade
In 1931, not many people had heard of the Chinese city of Mukden. When a small portion of a railway near the city was blown up on 18 September, none could have known that this tiny event would be the starting gun for the bloodiest conflict in human history.
YemenThe poorest country in the Gulf region is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis. is another place that many in the West will never have heard of before now. But some experts worry that in a hundred years, we might be talking about it in the same way as Mukden.
On Friday, the USA launched air strikes across Yemen on targets linked with the armed group known as the HouthisAn Islamist rebel group that controls a large part of Yemen. They are allies of Hamas in Gaza. .
The US hoped this would deter the Houthis from attacking ships. On Monday, they got their answer as the group fired on more cargoGoods that are being transported. ships and a US warship.
Then the twist. Early yesterday morning, more than 2000 km to the north, missiles fell near a US consulateThe office in a foreign city where government officials work and look after their citizens in that country. in Iraq, launched by neighbouring IranA country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million. .
Some experts think it is likely the Iranians were sending a message to the US on behalf of the Houthis, their ally.1
What is certain, they say, is that this is an escalation. Iran and the USA have clashed before, but mostly through proxiesIn warfare, a proxy is a smaller military power that fights or otherwise acts on behalf of a larger one.. The USA may feel it has to respond.
But Iran has strong ties with two other superpowers: Russia and China. They could get involved on behalf of their ally.
And Iran itself is no pushover. It was reported in December that the country had almost enriched enough uranium to make three atom bombsAn atom bomb rapidly releases nuclear energy. .2
So this, observers warn, is how we end up with a new world war. Not now, but not far from now.
But others say we are far from the 1930s. Iran is unlikely to step things up beyond here.
They point out the USA is still the greatest military superpower in history. It spends more on its military than the next 10 countries combined.3
So Iran, as well as its allies, will blink long before they find themselves in a direct confrontation with the Americans.
Are we back to the 1930s?
Yes: This is how global conflicts break out. Webs of alliances grow. Grievances multiply. Then one little incident in a far-flung part of the globe sets the whole thing on fire.
No: No-one in this conflict wants to go to war. Iran, China and Russia know they have no chance against the US. The US is desperately internally divided and has no wish to embark on another ruinous and expensive conflict.
Or... It is true that no-one involved wants to go to war. But World War One also broke out without anyone involved wanting it. Sometimes things spiral out of control.
Keywords
Yemen - The poorest country in the Gulf region is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis.
Houthis - An Islamist rebel group that controls a large part of Yemen. They are allies of Hamas in Gaza.
Cargo - Goods that are being transported.
Consulate - The office in a foreign city where government officials work and look after their citizens in that country.
Iran - A country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million.
Proxies - In warfare, a proxy is a smaller military power that fights or otherwise acts on behalf of a larger one.
Atom bombs - An atom bomb rapidly releases nuclear energy.
War warning on day missile hits US cargo ship
Glossary
Yemen - The poorest country in the Gulf region is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis.
Houthis - An Islamist rebel group that controls a large part of Yemen. They are allies of Hamas in Gaza.
Cargo - Goods that are being transported.
Consulate - The office in a foreign city where government officials work and look after their citizens in that country.
Iran - A country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million.
Proxies - In warfare, a proxy is a smaller military power that fights or otherwise acts on behalf of a larger one.
Atom bombs - An atom bomb rapidly releases nuclear energy.