War and Peace

In the dead of night in July 1918, a family of seven was awoken and told to get ready for a journey. But as they hastened to cram jewels, gold and icons into their pockets and purses, their captors unleashed a sea of bullets, killing the two parents and all five of their young children.

This was no ordinary family. Vladimir LeninA Russian communist revolutionary and first head of the Soviet Union who rose to prominence during Russia's 1917 revolution. 's BolshevikA member of the communist group led by Lenin that took power in Russia in 1917. revolutionaries had assassinated Russia's ImperialRelating to an empire. royalty, the House of Romanov.

When Nikolai Aleksandrovich Romanov was reluctantly crowned Russia's tsar in 1894, he is said to have asked "what is going to happen to me... and to all of Russia?"

The Bolsheviks made that decision for him. By wiping out the Romanovs, a dynasty that had ruled for three centuries, they had eradicated the only other people with a claim to rule Russia. The stage was set for the almost 70-year rule of the Soviet UnionOfficially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). A powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991. .

And now, a modern tsarTitle given to an emperor of Russia before the revolution of 1917. The word was originally used for the Bulgarian monarchs in the 10th Century, but can also be used to refer to anyone with absolute power. narrowly avoids execution. On Wednesday, two consecutive drones targeted Putin's residence on the Red Square in Moscow. Videos show a flying object whizzing towards the KremlinA central fortress in a city, used to refer to a complex in Moscow with five palaces and four cathedrals. The Russian government is run from within this citadel. before it is shot down by security forces.

Putin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov initially blamed Ukraine for the attacks, but the Kremlin later changed tack, stating "decisions on such terrorist attacks are made not in Kyiv, but in Washington".

Authorities from the US and UK have already cast doubt on the claims, which many suspect are propagandaInformation, which may be biased or misleading, used to promote a certain viewpoint. aimed at rallying support for Russia's ongoing offensive in Ukraine.

It comes ahead of Russia's Victory Day on the 9 May, which celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. The occasion is sure to be marked with a blaze of patriotic fervourIntense feeling or passion. , though many cities' parades have been cancelled or scaled back for fears that they could descend into protests against the invasion.

Some think the supposed assassination attempt is just another military tactic. Support for the war is waning among Russians amid economic instability, ongoing sanctionsEconomic measures designed to punish a country, for instance by excluding it from trade. and a gruelling months-long struggle by Russian soldiers to capture BakhmutA city in eastern Ukraine. . Fear of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory could bolster public support for Putin's invasion.

Nor would this be a new trick in the autocratA leader who rules by force and with absolute power, without the permission of others.'s playbook. In September 1999, then-obscure FSBThe Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is a federal executive body responsible for counterintelligence, antiterrorism, and surveillance of the military. officer Vladimir Putin is thought to have staged bombings of several apartment buildings in Moscow and two other cities, killing more than 300 people.

The bombings were blamed on terrorists in the war-ravaged North CaucasusA mountainous region between the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, including Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and part of Russia., allowing Moscow to kickstart its second war in ChechnyaA republic of Russia situated in the North Caucasus. It is home to indigenous Chechens, mostly of Muslim faith. with a campaign of brutal air strikes. Putin's popularity skyrocketed and by December 1999 he had risen from anonymity to the presidency.

If the drone strikes were faked, it may be a sign that Russian officials are trying to step up their attacks amid recent failures. Its army supposedly seized by desertions, Russia has failed to secure support from Beijing, all but lost its infamous Wagner Group mercenariesProfessional soldiers who are hired to fight in an army. , and faces a powerful Ukrainian counteroffensive this spring.

The Kremlin is already vowing retaliatory action for the apparent attempt on Putin's life, and carried out a series of heavy airstrikes across Ukraine's cities as news of the drones broke. But some will say these are the final cries of a wounded animal.

Yes: Russia has run out of both support and resources. Resorting to these desperate measures in order to drum up even a little enthusiasm for his war suggests that Putin knows he no longer has the country behind him.

No: There is no real evidence that Russia is losing the war. If anything, this story shows that it intends to scale up the offensive.

Or... Moscow will use this attack to threaten to go nuclear in Ukraine once again. The possibility that Russia will wield its nuclear weapons when it starts to lose the war will never go away.