Two years ago this month, a miracle seemed to be taking place. Ukraine, somehow, was not only holding out against the Russians, but beating them. Europe showed its solidarity by handing them victory in Eurovision. Sweden and Finland were bidding to join Nato. 

The western world seemed united behind the people of Ukraine and against Vladimir Putin. Later that year the Ukrainians were even able to drive the Russians out of the northeast of their country entirely.

But last week, Russia slowly but steadily inched its way back into the northeast. In just a few days they have seized 100km of Ukrainian territory.¹ Now today the top US diplomat, Antony Blinken, is in Ukraine as weapons from a new American aid package begin arriving at the front line. Blinken will deliver a message of "strong reassurance" to the Ukrainians "in a difficult moment", US officials say.

One professor of international politics says these developments should worry us all. Hal Brands claims what is happening in Ukraine is not a simple fight between two nations, nor even an unofficial war between the USA and its rival Russia. It is a World War.

In the 20th Century, local conflicts often became proxyA person or country used to represent someone else. wars between superpowers. For example, when the Korean War broke out in 1950, the West backed capitalistRelated to an economic system based on private ownership of businesses and goods. South Korea while the USSRThe United Socialist Soviet Republic, the USA's main rival in the Cold War before it collapsed and broke up into a number of smaller states in 1991. and China supported the communistAn economic system entailing collective ownership of all means of production in contrast with capitalism, which holds that industry and businesses are controlled and run for profit by private owners rather than by the government. north.

That reshaped the global order. Only five years before, the West, the Soviet Union and China had all been allies in World War Two. But tensions had been growing ever since. The Korean War created new battle lines across the globe, between East and West.

Now the same thing is happening in Ukraine. For years, enemies and rivals of the USA have kept their distance from each other. Iran, Russia, China, North KoreaA country formed in 1945 when Japanese-occupied Korea was split between a Communist government in the north and a capitalist one in the south. Today it is extremely reclusive, and hostile to the West. and VenezuelaAn oil-producing country in South America. all had different aims. China especially was keen to keep the option of a rapprochement with the West open.

But in 2022, when it seemed like Russia might lose the war, they all made the choice that they did not want to see the West score a big victory. Iran sent dronesDrones are aircraft flown with no humans on board. They are used for many different purposes. to the Russians. China ramped up its economic support. North Korea made a deal to supply its huge neighbour with ballistic missilesA type of rocket propelled weapons system. .²

Bit by bit, the war has formed the anti-western powers into an anti-western bloc. Whatever the outcome of the conflict, this division is here to stay.

It has also reshaped domestic politics. It may yet catapult Donald Trump back into the White House as Americans come to resent sending money across the world. In China it has empowered Xi JinpingThe president of China, who has concentrated power and removed term limits allowing him to serve for life.'s hardlinersPeople who take a hard or severe stance on something and refuse to budge. against moderates who wanted cooperation with the West, not closer ties with Russia.

And then there is the big unknown: the Global SouthA term increasingly used to describe less-developed countries, most of which are south of a line that separates, on different continents, the USA from Mexico, Europe from Africa, and Russia from central Asia and China.. The West, Russia and China are all courting the rising powers of Africa.

So far the West is losing. Russia has driven France out of West Africa.³ Many of the continent's biggest and fastest-growing economies, like South AfricaA country at the southern tip of Africa. It is home to nearly 60 million people. and EthiopiaA landlocked country in Africa. With a population of about 120 million, Ethiopia represents a melting pot of ancient cultures., are aligning themselves with the East.

And former US allies like Saudi ArabiaThe second-largest country in the Arab world, with a population of nearly 35 million. are peeling off and setting themselves up as middle powers between the two blocs.⁴ Altogether, it means the West has less power around the world than ever before. 

The Ukraine war could end as soon as next year. The World War that began in Ukraine could last the rest of our lifetimes.

Is the wrong side winning?

Yes: The West is being driven back all over: Ukraine, the Middle East, Africa. Its sphere of influence has already shrunk dramatically. And the USA itself is in a constant political crisis.

No: The USA is still by far the world's most powerful country. The West, especially Europe, is more united than ever. The coming years may even see the creation of a united European Army.⁵

Or... No-one wins from global rivalry. It means more wars around the world. It means lost opportunities for travel and connection. The moment is long overdue for peace and reconciliation.