Politicians spend hours of every day planning: how best to get their message out, fight the other side's claims, build their strengths, cover their weaknesses. But every so often something happens for which they cannot plan, an event that changes everything.

We have just witnessed one such event. The defining picture of this presidential campaign will now be Donald Trump, his face bloody, fist in the air, mouthing the words "fight, fight".

It was taken after Trump escaped death by millimetres when a gunman opened fire at a rally in Pennsylvania.

One person was killed in the shooting and several more injured, two of them critically.¹ A bullet hit the top of Trump's ear and he was rushed to hospital.

The shooter has been named as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a registered RepublicanSomebody who supports the idea of a country having an elected head of state, such as a president, rather than a hereditary king or queen. who has also donated to centre-left causes.² He was shot dead at the scene and while his action is being treated as an assassination attempt, his motive remains unknown.

But what matters more than his motive, experts say, is what impact this will have on the presidential race.

They say it is likely Trump will get a boost in the polls. After Ronald ReaganThe 40th US President. survived an assassination attempt in 1981, he shot up eight points and went on to win the 1984 presidential election in a landslide.³

Trump may benefit even more because he has made his own martyrdomDying for a cause. a central theme of his campaign. He has repeatedly told his supporters that the Democrats and the "deep stateAccording to an American conspiracy, the deep state is a group of influential government agencies or members who secretly manipulate government policy. " are trying to stop him from returning to the White House by burying him in legal cases.

Now he has the perfect conspiracy theory in his hands: as Joe Biden's torrid debate performance threatens to end his candidacy, as Democrats panic that Trump is set for victory, his opponents resort to more drastic measures.

Trump's allies are already mobilising to push this idea to voters. Many demanded to know how Crooks was able to get so close to Trump without being stopped by the FBIThe Federal Bureau of Investigation, which investigates crimes on a national level in the USA. or the Secret ServiceA government agency, intelligence agency, or the activities of a government agency, concerned with the gathering of intelligence data., implying these agencies were hoping he would succeed.

Others blamed Trump opponents for inciting violence against him. Senator JD VanceJames David Vance is a Republican senator., who may be Trump's pick for vice-president, said the Biden campaign's rhetoric, calling Trump a threat to democracy, had "led directly" to the assassination attempt.⁴

The president recently told Democratic donors he wanted to put his opponent in a "bullseye".

Biden allies counter that Trump himself has frequently used violent rhetoric against his foes. He has accused Biden of being a corrupt dictator himself.

On 6 January 2021, he infamously attended a rally where attendees called for the killing of his own vice-president, Mike PenceAn American politician who was vice president of the USA under Donald Trump. .

Since then he has implied he would go after his foes once back in office. Last year he told a town hall meeting he would "be a dictator on day one".⁵

But the assassination attempt, experts say, is a turning point. Before each side was just trading words. Now they will feel under more serious threat. They may feel if they are to protect themselves, they have to launch the first strike. 

So both sides of US politics may now feel they have an excuse to use violence against the other.

Is violent rhetoric to blame?

Yes: Both campaigns have been irresponsible, presenting each other as an existentialRelating to the state of human existence. Existential dread can refer to grappling with your own experiences of responsibility and death. threat. It was only a matter of time before someone decided to act on these accusations.

No: Every political campaign involves intemperateExcessive in behaviour, or showing a lack of control over yourself. language. In a healthy democracy party leaders make up afterwards. The problem in America is not rhetoric, but a deeply polarised society.

Or... Rhetoric may not be to blame in itself, but it could escalate the conflict. When everyone is claiming political leaders pose a threat to their citizens' safety, someone will soon decide, "it's either them or us".