Every so often something happens that no-one can plan for, an event that changes everything.

We have just witnessed one such event. The defining picture of this presidential campaign will now be Donald Trump, his face bloody, fist in the air, mouthing the words "fight, fight".

It was taken after Trump escaped death by millimetres when a gunman opened fire at a rally in Pennsylvania.

One person was killed in the shooting and several more injured, two of them critically.¹

The shooter has been named as Thomas Matthew Crooks.² He was shot dead at the scene and his motive remains unknown.

Experts say it is likely Trump will get a boost in the polls. After Ronald ReaganThe 40th US President. survived an assassination attempt in 1981, he shot up eight points and went on to win the 1984 presidential election in a landslide.³

Trump may benefit even more because he has made his own martyrdomDying for a cause. a central theme of his campaign. He has repeatedly told his supporters that the Democrats and the "deep stateAccording to an American conspiracy, the deep state is a group of influential government agencies or members who secretly manipulate government policy. " are trying to stop him from returning to the White House by burying him in legal cases.

Now he has the perfect conspiracy theory: he can imply his enemies in the government got desperate enough to take him out for good.

Trump's allies are already mobilising to push this idea to voters. Many implied the security services had let the attack go ahead.

Others blamed Trump opponents for inciting violence against him. Senator JD VanceJames David Vance is a Republican senator., who may be Trump's pick for vice-president, said the Biden campaign's rhetoric, calling Trump a threat to democracy, had "led directly" to the assassination attempt.⁴

Biden allies counter that Trump himself has frequently used violent rhetoric against his foes. He has accused Biden of being a corrupt dictator himself.

On 6 January, 2021, Trump infamously attended a rally where attendees called for the killing of his vice-president, Mike PenceAn American politician who was vice president of the USA under Donald Trump. .

Since then he has implied he would go after his foes once back in office. Last year he told a town hall meeting he would "be a dictator on day one".⁵

But the assassination attempt, experts say, is a turning point. Before each side was just trading words. They may now feel they have an excuse to turn to violence.

Is violent rhetoric to blame?

Yes: Both campaigns have been irresponsible, presenting each other as an existentialRelating to the state of human existence. Existential dread can refer to grappling with your own experiences of responsibility and death. threat. It was only a matter of time before someone decided to act on it.

No: Every political campaign involves intemperateExcessive in behaviour, or showing a lack of control over yourself. language. In a healthy democracy party leaders make up afterwards. The problem in America is not rhetoric, but a deeply polarised society.

Or... Rhetoric may not be to blame in itself, but it could escalate the conflict. When everyone is claiming political leaders pose a threat to their citizens' safety, someone will soon decide, "it's either them or us".