Labouring the point

An election looms. The Conservative PartyA British political party. Members are known as Tories. have been in power for well over a decade. They toppled their previous leader after an economic crisis that many blamed on her heterodoxNot conforming with standard or usual beliefs. views. Their new leader, a grey technocratA minister or person with political power who is an expert in their field, e.g. economics, rather than a career politician. , is not raising much enthusiasm. LabourBritain's main left-of-centre political party. has a crushing lead in the polls. Everyone is certain this is when the Tories lose.

Is this 2024? No. It is 1992, the year the Conservatives won a shock victory over Labour after thirteen years in government.

The memory of that election still haunts Labour. They know no matter how big their lead, no matter how uncharismaticSomebody whose personal qualities do not inspire others. or incompetent their opponent seems, no matter how divided the Conservatives might be, everything can come crashing down.

Many fear that whenever the next election is held, most likely in November of this year, it could happen again.

That is why its leader, Keir StarmerThe leader of the UK Labour Party since 2020 and British prime minister since July 2024., has opted for a strategy of extreme caution, trying to make sure Labour never exposes even the slightest weakness. He has been compared with someone "carrying a priceless MingRelating to the dynasty that ruled China between 1368 and 1644. vase across a highly polished floor".

But many think he has little to worry about. As of this month, Labour has a 24-point polling lead over the Conservatives, at 46% to 22%. If replicated in the next general election, Labour would win 500 seats in the House of Commons and a majority of 350.

That is unlikely: the polls usually narrow as an election approaches. But even if Labour's lead were cut in half between now and the election, it would still end up with a healthy majority of 52.

What makes it more difficult for the Conservatives to claw back their position, experts claim, is tactical votingWhen people vote for the candidate who is most likely to beat their political opponent, rather than their first choice candidate.. Labour, Liberal DemocratAlso known as the Lib Dems, a liberal political party in the UK. and Green PartyA centre-left party largely focused on environmental politics. It formed part of a coalition government with the Social Democrats between 1998 and 2005. voters have all banded together to choose the candidate best placed to defeat the government.

That is why for many observers, a Labour government has become a matter of if, not when.

What is less certain, they say, is what it will do once in power. Starmer has promised to lead a "decade of national renewal". He says he will rebuild infrastructureThe basic systems and services that a country needs to keep it going., restore struggling public services and revitalise the economy.

But at the same time, his shadow chancellorIn the UK, the member of the biggest political party not in government who follows the role of the Chancellor of the Exchequer. , Rachel Reeves, has been reassuring everyone that Labour will not raise taxes or borrow a lot of money. The centrepiece of Labour's investment strategy, a plan to invest £28 billion a year in greening the economy, has been watered down to meet this pledge.

This is all about the Ming vase again, observers believe. Labour lost in 1992 in part because it planned to raise taxes. It went down to another shock defeat in 2015 after the Conservatives accused it of borrowing too much money in power. Starmer wants to make sure these attack lines cannot be used against him.

But critics say Britain's crumbling services and infrastructure can only be improved with a lot of investment. They fear Labour is so worried about Conservative attacks that it has tied its hands and undermined its own core mission.

Next year, they argue, Labour will have to choose between national renewal and financial discipline. That choice could determine whether it wins again in 2029 - and whether Britain continues down the path of national decline.

Will it make much difference?

Yes: Labour has set itself the mission of rebuilding the public realm. It knows it can only stay  in power in future if it delivers on this promise. Britain in 2029 will be like a new nation.

No: Starmer wants to build but he does not want to spend money. He cannot have both. That tension threatens to hamstringA tendon in the thigh, or a verb meaning to limit something or someone. the party and prevent it from bringing about meaningful change.

Or... The truth is that the crisis in the British economy goes back decades. Whether or not Starmer turns on the spending taps, it might not prove enough to reverse the decline.