Labouring the point

An election looms. The Conservative PartyA British political party. Members are known as Tories. has been in power for well over a decade. They toppled their previous leader and the new one, a grey technocratA minister or person with political power who is an expert in their field, e.g. economics, rather than a career politician. , is not raising much enthusiasm. LabourBritain's main left-of-centre political party. has a crushing lead in the polls. Everyone is certain this is when the ToriesThe Tory Party was the former name of the Conservative Party. The phrase is still used to refer to Conservatives.  lose.

Is this 2024? No. It is 1992, the year the Conservatives won a shock victory over Labour after thirteen years in government.

The memory of that election still haunts Labour. They know no matter how big their lead, no matter how uncharismaticSomebody whose personal qualities do not inspire others. or incompetent their opponent seems, no matter how divided the Conservatives might be, everything can come crashing down.

Many fear that whenever the next election is held, most likely in November of this year, it could happen again.

That is why its leader, Keir StarmerThe leader of the UK Labour Party since 2020 and British prime minister since July 2024., has opted for a strategy of extreme caution, trying to make sure Labour never exposes even the slightest weakness.

But many think he has little to worry about. As of this month, Labour has a 24-point polling lead over the Conservatives, 46% to 22%. Even if Labour's lead were cut in half between now and the election, it would still end up with a healthy majority of 52.

For many observers, a Labour government has become a matter of if, not when.

What is less certain, they say, is what it will do once in power. Starmer has promised to lead a "decade of national renewal". He says he will rebuild infrastructureThe basic systems and services that a country needs to keep it going., restore struggling public services, and revitalise the economy.

But at the same time, his shadow chancellorIn the UK, the member of the biggest political party not in government who follows the role of the Chancellor of the Exchequer. , Rachel Reeves, has been reassuring everyone that Labour will not raise taxes or borrow a lot of money.

Observers say there is some sense to this. Labour lost in 1992 in part because it planned to raise taxes. It went down to another shock defeat in 2015 after the Conservatives accused it of borrowing too much money in power. Starmer wants to make sure these attack lines cannot be used against him.

But critics say Britain's crumbling services and infrastructure can only be improved with a lot of investmentWhen you put money into a project or idea in the hope it will be successful in the future. . They fear Labour is so worried about Conservative attacks that it has tied its hands.

Next year, they argue, Labour will have to choose between national renewal and financial discipline.

Will it make much difference?

Yes: Labour has set itself the mission of rebuilding the public realm. It knows it can only stay in power in future if it delivers on this promise. Britain in 2029 will be like a new nation.

No: Starmer wants to build but he does not want to spend money. He cannot have both. That tension threatens to hamstringA tendon in the thigh, or a verb meaning to limit something or someone. the party and prevent it from bringing about meaningful change.

Or... The truth is that the crisis in the British economy goes back decades. Whether or not Starmer turns on the spending taps, it might not prove enough to reverse the decline.