Thin ice

What were your new year's resolutions? Perhaps you decided to eat more vegetables, or stop doing your homework last-minute. Perhaps you decided to start a new sport or read more books.

Whatever they were, we have one new year's resolution to share: getting our planet back into shape. 2023 was the hottest year on record due to man-made climate change, standing at 1.48C warmer than the long-term average. Sea surface temperatures smashed previous records. And despite our efforts, the year saw a 1% increase in emissions from burning fossil fuels compared to 2022.

2024 could be different. Experts think that this could be the first year on record where we see an overall decline in greenhouse gasGases in the Earth's atmosphere that trap heat, contributing to global warming. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and water vapour are all greenhouse gases. emissions, two years ahead of the schedule predicted by the IEAInternational Energy Agency.'s World Energy Outlook.

It is an achievement which inspires some cautious optimism. The shift has been caused by a number of factors, including the unprecedented popularity of electric vehicles¹ and the meteoric rise of renewable energy.

This could make 2023 the year that greenhouse gas emissions peakedReached its highest point. . Perhaps the worst is behind us.

The energy sector is to blame for around three-quarters of global greenhouse emissions. But some of the world's largest economies have brought renewable energy growth to an all-time high. Fossil fuels now make up less than half of China's power capacity, whilst renewable energy will generate more than a quarter of US energy this year.

And this year will see the biggest ever addition of wind and solar capacity globally, adding a total of 440 gigawatts.²

Reducing our carbon dioxide emissions is central to the fight against global warming. CO2 is a greenhouse gas which traps heat in our atmosphere to keep the planet warm. But when levels of CO2 get too high, the Earth's temperature warms up too much, disrupting the Earth's natural climate. This is why decarbonisationRemoving emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from the output of the economy. is a major target.

It is about time we had some good news in the long fight against climate change. Many think 2023 was a wake-up call. The World Meteorological Organisation described it as a "deafening cacophonyA harsh or jarring mixture of sounds. The term originates from the Greek words kakos, meaning bad, and phone, meaning sound. of broken records", whilst others described climate records tumbling "like dominoes".

But even if 2024 does go down in history as the year we finally kicked emissions growth, experts advise that it is only a first step. It is increasingly unlikely that we will hit the 1.5C warming target set by the Paris Agreement in 2015 to avoid the deadliest effects of climate change.³

It is now predicted that to have even a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C, we would need to hit net zeroWhen the gases going into the atmosphere are balanced by those being taken out of it. globally by 2034, rather than the cautious target of 2050.

"There are no social or technical scenarios in the scientific literature that even describe how that would be possible," says Joeri Rogelj at Imperial College London.⁴ At best, we can hope to limit our warming to well below 2C - but this could come at a disastrous cost for the environment.

Some say we should not give up hope. Our pursuit of renewable energy proves that where there is a will, there is a way. Others underline the rapid development of carbon captureTechnology which captures carbon dioxide from the air and transports it to storage sites underwater, preventing it from warming the atmosphere. technologies as proof that the damage may not be irreversible.

So can we be climate optimists?

Yes: The trajectory is clearly positive and there is much to celebrate. We have mobilised the world's largest economies to fight back against climate change, and as a result renewable energy is thriving.

No: It is clear that we are going to miss the most essential and symbolic climate target of our time. Everything we are doing is too little, too late.

Or... There is little cause for being a climate optimist after last year's cascade of broken climate records. However, it is essential that we do not give up hope entirely: everything we can do right at this point will save countless lives.