Tai-win?

2024 will be the year the world goes to the polls. More than 60 countries, or half of the world's populations, will vote in presidential, legislative and local elections this year, including the US, South Africa, India and Indonesia. But the most important election of this year may take place in a tiny, self-ruling island of 23 million around 100 miles from the coast of south-east China.

Taiwan's elections are set to take place on Saturday to elect a new president and parliament. But many see the elections as Taiwan's vote on its looming authoritarianEnforcing strict obedience to authority. neighbour, China.

Taiwan has its own constitutionA document that sets out the fundamental rules according to which a country is governed, which are usually difficult to change., democratic elections and an army of around 300,000 active troops. But only 13 countries acknowledge it as a sovereignWhen a nation is independent and self-governing. nation. Beijing sees the island as a breakaway provinceA region. which will eventually be reunited with China.

The race will be tight. The frontrunner from the incumbentThe person already in a position. Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Ching-te, has previously expressed support for formal independence, but has pivotedChanged direction. on the campaign trail, pledging to maintain the status quo. His biggest contender, Hou Yu-ih, supports closer ties with China.

Under the incumbent Tsai Ing-wen, cross-straitRelations between China and Taiwan. relations have soured noticeably. Ms Tsai insists that Taiwan is already independent and does not need to formally declare itself as such. Beijing cut off official communications with Taiwan after she was elected in 2016 in objection to her views.

The majority of Taiwanese people support neither reunificationWhen two countries that have been split apart become one nation again. with the People's Republic of China (PRC) nor independence. Most people simply want to maintain the status quo.²

China's President Xi has sent out a series of belligerentThreatening and aggressive. messages. He has set 2049 as a target date for "achieving the Chinese dream" of reunification, describing an eventual reunion as "unstoppable". The threat of invasion is always implicitSuggested or to be understood though not clearly or directly stated..

US president Joe Biden has vowed to protect Taiwan from Chinese military aggression on four separate occasions, but the nature of this protection is still unclear. It regards Taiwan as a key strategic ally protecting its interests in the region.

Economics will play a vital role. Taiwan's sluggish growth rate of just 1.4% in 2023 has sown major discontent, but Chinese boycotts and sanctionsEconomic measures designed to punish a country, for instance by excluding it from trade. are some of the main factors stunting growth.³

War would deal a fatal economic blow, and not just to Taiwan. The small island has a huge influence on global supply chainsThe system of connected suppliers and producers that bring a product to consumers. One product might come to us through several sites across the world. Covid-19 infections and restrictions disrupted these chains., producing 90% of the world's advanced semiconductor chips. It is the world's 16th-largest trading economy. Bloomberg Economics estimates that a Chinese invasion of the territory could cost the world economy a devastating $10 trillion.

It would be fair to say that most are keen to avoid this outcome. But for China, there would be huge strategic benefits from more control over Taiwan's economy, which powers the electronics market worldwide.

Many believe that Beijing is poised to order an invasion of Taiwan if the elections do not go to plan. But the likelihood of retaliation from the US, Taiwan's strongest ally, will inevitably give it pause for thought. A full-scale invasion would likely be a catalystA substance able to increase the rate of a chemical reaction without itself being consumed or changed by the reacting chemicals.  for war between the world's two strongest powers, something which many think neither country can afford.

Could it trigger World War Three?

Yes: If the US gets drawn into a war with China, it will draw in all of their allies and affect the world economy on an unimaginable scale. A third World War would be inevitable.

No: China will not take the risk of invading Taiwan when it can make threats and destabilise its democracy from afar. The stakes are far too high.

Or... The US will not run the risk of a full-scale war with China even if it invades Taiwan. It will offer military support for the purpose of defence but otherwise it will avoid involvement.