Will it lead to WW3? A year since the 7 October attack, the conflict between Israel and Hamas is escalating into a regional war. But some think it threatens to become even bigger.
The year the Middle East imploded
Will it lead to WW3? A year since the 7 October attack, the conflict between Israel and Hamas is escalating into a regional war. But some think it threatens to become even bigger.
It is a date that will go down in history. On 7 October 2023, the PalestinianPalestine is an area of the eastern Mediterranean region, including the West Bank, Gaza Strip and parts of modern Israel. It has been fought over by Arab and Jewish national movements for many years. militant group HamasA militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK. launched a brutal terrorist attack on Israeli citizens in which 1,200 people were killed and over 240 were taken hostage.
The next day, Israel declared war. Defence Minister Yoav Gallant promised to wipe Hamas "off the face of the Earth".1 The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) began airstrikes on Palestinian territory in the Gaza StripThe smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, surrounded by Israel and Egypt. .
A year on, the Middle EastThe lands around the east of the Mediterranean Sea and Arabia. is in flames. As of 23 September, over 43,000 people have been killed in the conflict, the vast majority Palestinian.2 Up to 134 journalists and over 224 humanitarian employees are among the fatalities.3 Over 60% of Gaza residents have lost family members4 and about 90% have been displaced.5
The IDF has targeted LebanonA small country on the eastern Mediterranean coast that has been in the grip of an economic crisis for over a year. It has a native population of just 4.7 million, but migrants and refugees have brought its total population up to almost 7 million., to Israel's north. Lebanon is home to HezbollahA militant organisation based in Lebanon, classified in the UK as a terrorist group. It has made direct attacks on Israel and is believed to have been responsible for assassinating Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri., an IslamistAn advocate of Islamic fundamentalism. Often used in the West to describe those who believe in imposing Sharia (Islamic law) on societies. political party and military group that rejects Israel's right to exist.6 On 27 September it took out Hassan Nasrallah, the group's secretary-general.
Iran, a major regional power, has now become involved. It supports Hamas and Hezbollah. Although it has yet to officially declare war, it last week launched almost 200 missiles at Israel.7
The roots of this conflict go back over a century. Israel was founded as a nation for Jewish people. But it was built on land then occupied by Palestinians. Israel conquered much of the region. Palestinian refugees and their descendants largely live in two occupied areas, Gaza and the West Bank, with limited freedom.8
Some think the conflict might grow. Telegraph writer Allister Heath says that we are on the brink of World War Three".9
The United States has sent Israel advanced weaponry. If other military powers such as China and Russia get more involved in support of Iran, a war between great powers might be on the table.
Yet others think this fear is overblown. Major powers do not want to be drawn into conflict. Expert and academic Matt Clary says: "they likely have a preference to prevent this conflict from escalating". Russia is tied up in Ukraine and China wants a steady stream of oil from the region.10
Will it lead to WW3?
Yes: It is World War One all over again. What seems like a regional issue can quickly blow up, as powers honour their promises to protect allies. We could be at the beginning of a chain reaction.
No: As brutal and unrelenting as the war in the Middle East is, it remains a regional conflict. Few countries away from the region want to sacrifice their safety and stability for others.
Or... In some sense we are already there. The United States is sending weapons to Israel and Ukraine. By doing so, it is in a sense in conflict with Russia, Hezbollah and Iran, if not directly.
Palestinian - Palestine is an area of the eastern Mediterranean region, including the West Bank, Gaza Strip and parts of modern Israel. It has been fought over by Arab and Jewish national movements for many years.
Hamas - A militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK.
Gaza strip - The smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, surrounded by Israel and Egypt.
Middle East - The lands around the east of the Mediterranean Sea and Arabia.
Lebanon - A small country on the eastern Mediterranean coast that has been in the grip of an economic crisis for over a year. It has a native population of just 4.7 million, but migrants and refugees have brought its total population up to almost 7 million.
Hezbollah - A militant organisation based in Lebanon, classified in the UK as a terrorist group. It has made direct attacks on Israel and is believed to have been responsible for assassinating Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.
Islamist - An advocate of Islamic fundamentalism. Often used in the West to describe those who believe in imposing Sharia (Islamic law) on societies.
The year the Middle East imploded

Glossary
Palestinian - Palestine is an area of the eastern Mediterranean region, including the West Bank, Gaza Strip and parts of modern Israel. It has been fought over by Arab and Jewish national movements for many years.
Hamas - A militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK.
Gaza strip - The smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, surrounded by Israel and Egypt.
Middle East - The lands around the east of the Mediterranean Sea and Arabia.
Lebanon - A small country on the eastern Mediterranean coast that has been in the grip of an economic crisis for over a year. It has a native population of just 4.7 million, but migrants and refugees have brought its total population up to almost 7 million.
Hezbollah - A militant organisation based in Lebanon, classified in the UK as a terrorist group. It has made direct attacks on Israel and is believed to have been responsible for assassinating Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.
Islamist - An advocate of Islamic fundamentalism. Often used in the West to describe those who believe in imposing Sharia (Islamic law) on societies.