"Well, guess who's back?" said Nigel Farage with a grin. The leader of Reform UK had chosen a run-down Welsh town for the launch of the party's manifesto - or "contract", as he prefers to call it. He told his audience that Merthyr Tydfil was "skint" and in "real trouble": a symptom of a country that was "broken" and in which "nothing actually works any more".

Farage admitted that Reform did not hope to win the general election. Instead, its aim was to overtake the Conservatives, "to establish a bridgeheadA strong position secured by an army inside enemy territory, from where it can advance or attack. in parliament and to become a real opposition to a Labour government". Although he has stood unsuccessfully for parliament seven times, he hopes to be a candidate for prime minister in 2029.

In the headlines. Reform wants to freeze "non-essential" immigration and take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights, so that it does not have to accept asylum seekers. It would abandon the net zero target and green energy subsidies, lower petrol prices and encourage drilling for oil and gas. Drug dealers would face life imprisonment.

Economy. No income tax for people earning less than £20,000 a year; stamp dutyA tax paid when buying a property, which increases in line with the value of the property. to be abolished; corporation tax to be reduced; £40bn to be saved by reducing the interest paid on Bank of England reserves; foreign aid to be cut by 50%.

Education. Tax incentives for parents to choose independent schools. Violent and disruptive students to be permanently excluded. No interest on student loans. History lessons to emphasise that imperialism and slavery were not only practised by Europeans.

Immigration. Illegal immigrants to be detained and deported; those coming in small boats "to be picked up and taken back to France. Higher national insuranceIn the UK, a tax on money you earn, either from your job or by being self-employed. for foreign workers and less social housingHomes available to rent through local authorities or housing associations.. Stricter visaAn official document permitting someone to legally enter and stay in a country. rules for international students.

Health and social care. Reduce taxes for NHS and social care workers. Cut waiting times and encourage private health care. Fines for patients who fail to turn up for appointments.

Society. A referendum on proportional representationA voting system in which the winning party gets a proportion of parliamentary seats equal to its proportion of the vote.. The House of Lords to be replaced and the Civil Service to be headed by political appointeesPeople chosen to do a job by ruling politicians.. Police to pursue mass stop-and-search policies. Tax benefits for married couples and for businesses which take on apprentices. Benefits withdrawn from people who do not accept a job after two offers.

According to the deputy head of the Institute for Fiscal StudiesAn independent economic research organisation., Carl Emmerson,¹ "the sums in this manifesto do not add up" - even with the most optimistic assumptions about economic growth. The proposed tax cuts would cost "tens of billions of pounds a year" more than Reform admits, while cuts in spending would save less.

But The Economist believes that Reform does have real hope of persuading large numbers of Tories to defect: "Plenty of Conservative MPs, though by no means all, agree with every letter of that agenda, and long to unite right-wing voters under a single banner."

Do you agree?

Yes: However sympathetic you feel towards asylum-seekers and would-be migrants, Britain has limited resources and should have control of its borders. Scrapping interest on student loans is a great idea.

No: Reform's disregard for human rights and the environment is shocking. Its immigration policies are designed to appeal to racists. It has no grasp of economics. Cutting foreign aid is short-sighted.

Or... What Farage really wants is to become leader of the Conservatives. If Reform get a respectable share of the vote, right-wing Tories will see him as a winner and welcome him into their party.