Hundreds of thousands dead. Millions forced to leave their homes. Billions in Western weapons. But after nearly two years of war, Ukraine is running out of options and Western support is drying up.¹

Yet Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky remains determined: surrenderTo give up or stop resisting. is unthinkable. Ukraine will fight to the bitter end to reclaim its land. 

This week's TIME magazine cover story² on Zelensky confirms what critics of the war have been saying all along - it is unwinnable for Ukraine. In fact, the article even describes Zelensky as "delusionalMaintaining false beliefs despite evidence suggesting they are wrong. " for his unwillingness to consider peace talks with Russia. 

They may sound like quotes from the KremlinA central fortress in a city, used to refer to a complex in Moscow with five palaces and four cathedrals. The Russian government is run from within this citadel.. In reality, the sources are Zelensky's own top aides and advisors. 

There was hope of a "deep and beautiful breakthrough" in the counteroffensiveA set of attacks to defend against attacks from an enemy. against Russia that was launched this summer, but one Ukrainian general now sees this as unlikely.³ 

"We're out of options," says one of Zelensky's closest helpers. "We're not winning. But try telling him that."

Added to this are the horrifying number of casualties in Ukraine's army. Some commanders now refuse Zelensky's "impossible" orders to advance. 

The hard truth is clear, some say: Ukraine has no path to total victory. The country has already lost too much. 

To many in the West, these allegations may be surprising. Western media has portrayed Russian leader Vladimir Putin as hopefully confused, busy putting down revoltsUprisings. in Russia. How could it be that he is actually winning?

Many historians of war are much less surprised. Wars are often won by sticking it out⁴ despite the massive loss of life. And with a population of 143 million, Russia can do this for far longer than Ukraine. Today, as the war heads towards its third year, some are beginning to ask: is a peace deal the only option left?⁵

Yes: Despite setbacks, Russia continues to occupy around 20% of Ukrainian territory. Its advances in the east continue steadily. Sanctions have damaged but not crippled Russia's economy. Putin has the resources to withstand a long war of attrition.

No: Ukraine's fierce resistance has denied Russia the quick victory it expected. Russia has suffered heavy losses and military failures.

Or... The outcome remains uncertain. Russia is making gains but taking losses. Ukraine is resisting despite casualties. The war may end not with a clear winner, but exhaustion on both sides.