Hundreds of thousands dead. Millions displaced. Billions in Western arms and ammunition. But after nearly two years of war, Ukraine is running out of options and Western support is drying up.¹

Yet Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky remains adamant: surrender is unthinkable. Ukraine will fight to the bitter end to reclaim its occupied territory. Retreat or compromise are unthinkable. 

This week's TIME magazine cover story² on Zelensky confirms what critics of the war have been saying all along - it is unwinnable for Ukraine. In fact, the article even describes Zelensky as "delusional" for his unwillingness to consider peace negotiations with Russia. 

They may sound like quotes from the KremlinA central fortress in a city, used to refer to a complex in Moscow with five palaces and four cathedrals. The Russian government is run from within this citadel.. In reality, the sources for these candidTruthful and straightforward. assessments are Zelensky's own top aides and advisors. 

There was hope of a "deep and beautiful breakthrough" in the counteroffensiveA set of attacks to defend against attacks from an enemy. against Russia that was launched this summer, but one Ukrainian general now sees this as unlikely.³ 

Zelensky believes total victory over Russia is possible. Many disagree, "He deludes himself," claims one of Zelensky's closest aides. "We're out of options. We're not winning. But try telling him that."

Added to this are the horrifying number of casualties in Ukraine's army. The average soldier is now 43 and moraleCheerfulness and enthusiasm, especially in a time of suffering. is collapsing. Some commanders now refuse Zelensky's "impossible" orders to advance. 

Zelensky remains defiant, but the hard truth is clear, some say: Ukraine has no path to total victory. The country has already lost too much. 

To many in the West, these allegations may be surprising. Western media has portrayed Putin as a hopefully confused, even unwell, villain busy putting down internal revolts. Reports that his troops are deserting and making do with Cold WarA period of diplomatic conflict between blocs led by the USA and the USSR that lasted from 1947 until 1991, when the USSR collapsed. weapons are commonplace. How could it be that he is actually winning?

Many historians of war are much less surprised. Wars are often won by sticking it out⁴ despite the massive loss of life. And Russia is no stranger to wars of attrition, and with a population of 143 million it can afford to do this for far longer than Ukraine - just as it did when it defeated NapoleonThe French military commander and political leader who rose to prominence during the French Revolution and led successful campaigns during the Revolutionary Wars. in 1812.⁵ Today, as the war heads towards its third year, some are beginning to ask: is a peace deal the only option left?⁶

Yes: Despite setbacks, Russia continues to occupy around 20% of Ukrainian territory. Its advances in the east continue steadily. Sanctions have damaged but not crippled Russia's economy. Putin has the resources to withstand a long war of attrition.

No: Ukraine's fierce resistance has denied Russia the quick victory it expected. Russia has suffered heavy losses and military failures.

Or... The outcome remains uncertain. Russia is making gains but taking losses. Ukraine is resisting despite casualties. The war may end not with a clear winner, but exhaustion on both sides.