In 1992, a young commodities traderSomebody who invests in physical substances such as oil, gold or agricultural products. decided to quit the Conservative PartyA British political party. Members are known as Tories. in a solitary, frustrated gesture against prime minister John MajorMajor was the British prime minister from 1990 to 1997. 's signing of the Maastricht TreatyA key treaty in the creation of the European Union, sighed in the Netherlands in 1992. It paved the way for the single currency, the Euro. , an agreement to increase the integration of European countries.

The following year, the same trader met with a small group of others in London to found a new party devoted to opposing the EU. Few would have recognised the name that he signed among the UK Independence PartyA Eurosceptic, right-wing populist party in the United Kingdom, founded in 1993. Its most prominent figure was Nigel Farage, who has since left for the Reform Party. 's founders: Nigel Farage.

Three decades later, Farage is one of the country's most widely-recognised politicians.¹ That is despite the fact that he has never been elected to the UK parliament. Indeed, he has been rejected at the polls seven times.²

But his influence on UK politics has been unmatched. He was instrumental in the campaign to get, and then win, a referendum on Britain's EU membership. In 2019, his decision to stand aside to give Boris Johnson a clear run was credited with winning the Conservatives a big majority.

Now he stands on the cusp of his biggest ever achievement. By the end of next week, not only may he finally win a seat in the House of CommonsThe democratically elected house of the UK Parliament. It consists of 650 Members of Parliament. ; he could be the favourite to become prime minister.

The story goes something like this. Labour gets a big victory on 4 July. However, it struggles to get to grips with the problems facing the country.

It will also face a series of crises. The UK's largest water company, Thames WaterA private company responsible for supplying water to and treating waste water from Greater London and some other areas. , may collapse. A new wave of pay demands is being readied by the unionsA trade union is an association of workers which can fight for the rights of workers and defend them against unfair working conditions.. As early as July, the prisons may be completely full.³

The new prime minister, Keir StarmerThe leader of the UK Labour Party since 2020 and British prime minister since July 2024., will only be able to deal with these problems by borrowing money or taxing more.

Yet he has repeatedly promised not to do either. And people are already feeling the pinch. Starmer would seem like a liar. New tax hikes could cause a new wave of disillusionment.

Normally the Conservative Party would stand to gain from this. But one man may put a stop to that.

Farage knows there is no chance his own party, Reform, will win a large number of seats. But it could end up close behind the Tories in vote share.

That would mean the Conservatives falling below 100 seats for the first time in history.⁴ They might never recover from that blow. Right-wingers would call for a merger with Reform. The price of that could be Nigel Farage as leader of a new Conservative Reform Party.

At a stroke he would become head of a sophisticated party machine with a compelling case against a flailing Labour government. He would be on the doorstep of 10 Downing Street already.

So what, some ask? We live in a democracy. If the people want Farage then they should get him.

But others are more cautious. They point out Farage has a long history of playing fast and loose with democracy.

His party denies the scientific consensus on climate change.⁵ He has shared doctored images as if they were real.⁶ And he has parroted Vladimir PutinRussia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West.'s propaganda about the war in Ukraine. He is also close to Donald Trump.

So elevating him to high office might not be democracy at work, they say. It could be a sign our democracy is deeply sick.

Is this healthy democracy at work?

Yes: In a democracy, people must be free to vote for whomever they like. If Labour and the Conservatives want to keep Nigel Farage out of power, they have to persuade voters to opt for them instead.

No: A healthy democracy is one that remains a democracy. Farage is a threat to democratic norms. The fact he is a contender for prime minister shows British democracy has a death wish.

Or... If voters feel disillusioned and angry enough to vote for Nigel Farage, that is ultimately the fault of the established parties for letting them down. But that does not mean Farage himself is the answer.