Is this really serious? Scientists have sounded the alarm that “Europe’s central heating” faces full-scale climate breakdown. But some say it is just one of many possible environmental tipping points.
The growing belief in a new ice age
Is this really serious? Scientists have sounded the alarm that "Europe's central heating" faces full-scale climate breakdown. But some say it is just one of many possible environmental tipping points.
The Thames has frozen over. Brave commuters brace themselves against the Arctic gale. Big Ben has been stopped dead by ice, the clock permanently showing one second to midnight.
Some scientists think these apocalypticReferring to the end of the world, or the collapse of civilisation. scenes could be our reality in just a few years. A growing number of scientists now think that temperatures could start to drop dramatically in northern Europe this century.
This is because of the Amoc, which stands for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The Amoc is one of our planet's largest systems of heat transport, bringing warmth through ocean currents into the North Atlantic. It has been described as "Europe's central heating".
Currents bring warm surface water from the tropics to the north, where they release heat in the subpolarA climate zone that is found in the northern hemisphere, south of the polar climate, and is characterised by severely cold winters and short, cool summers. Atlantic. The water cools, sinks and then returns south as a cold current.1 You might imagine it as a conveyor belt.
But some scientists say that we have been receiving indications for up to 70 years that the Amoc has been slowing due to global warming, and could collapse.
A collapse would be a catastrophe. We would see northern Atlantic sea levels rising by around half a metre. The temperature in some European cities would drop by more than 10C. The tropical rainfall belt would shift to the south, causing widespread droughts and floods.
In 2023, scientists from Denmark concluded that the Amoc could collapse at any time between 2025 and 2095.2 But not everyone agrees.
A different team of scientists concluded that the Amoc has not declined over the past 60 years.3 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expressed "medium confidence" that the Amoc would not collapse before 2100.4
Nobody knows for sure when the Amoc might collapse. It could be tomorrow, or it could be in a century or longer. Either way, if we do not clean up our climate act, we could be in for a frosty future.
Is this really serious?
Yes: The risk is huge and grows every day. As seas warm and ice melts from global warming, it gets harder for salty water to sink in northern Europe and make way for warmer currents again from the Equator, so currents slow further. Every day brings Amoc collapse closer.
No: Amoc collapse would be serious indeed, but luckily it is not happening. Plenty of scientists have concluded that currents have not weakened over the past few decades. It is simply fear-mongering and detracts from more important issues.
Or... It does not matter how serious Amoc collapse is. Even if there is only a 5% chance that it will happen in the next 50 years, we should still act to prevent such a catastrophic event. Would you eat a cake that had a 5% chance of poisoning you?
Apocalyptic - Referring to the end of the world, or the collapse of civilisation.
Subpolar - A climate zone that is found in the northern hemisphere, south of the polar climate, and is characterised by severely cold winters and short, cool summers.
The growing belief in a new ice age

Glossary
Apocalyptic - Referring to the end of the world, or the collapse of civilisation.
Subpolar - A climate zone that is found in the northern hemisphere, south of the polar climate, and is characterised by severely cold winters and short, cool summers.