Since 2016, one word has been used to describe Britain over and over: basketcaseA country or organisation that is in severe financial or economic difficulties, especially one that is unable to pay its debts.. International observers said it had voted for its own implosion, elected one blonde chancer to get it done, then replaced him with another who promptly crashed the economy.

Friends and enemies alike were astonished that a country so long associated with moderation and caution could have suddenly turned so radical.

In the last fortnight, all that has changed. Britain has a new prime minister, one whose watchword is "sensible government". He is already reforging ties with Europe and recommitting to international law.

Across the sea, in contrast, the European elections gave a boost to the far right. Members of Geert WildersA Dutch politician who has led the right-wing to far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) since he founded it in 2006.' anti-Islam party are now in the Dutch government. In the US, DemocratsMembers of the Democratic party, the left-leaning US political party. Joe Biden and Barack Obama are both Democrats. are tearing their hair out over an election that seems all but certain to return Donald Trump to the White House.

And in France voters only narrowly kept the far right out of power by rallying around left-wing and centrist parties. Marine le PenThe leader of the National Rally who has sought to moderate its image and normalise its place in French politics.'s National Rally still topped the national vote, with 37%.¹ And now France faces three years of political chaos, with no party commanding anything close to a majority in the National AssemblyThe lower house of the French Parliament, the equivalent of the House of Commons..

Many people in Britain are feeling something they have not felt for years: a little flame of optimism.

In their view, it was Brexit that really unleashed the global populistThe term comes from the People's Party, which operated in the USA in the 1890s. Now, it is often used to refer to any movement that makes a distinction between the "people" and the corrupt "establishment". wave. A few months later, Trump won his first term. The following year Marine le Pen became only the second far-right leader to reach the second round of a presidential election in France.

So perhaps, they say, Keir Starmer's decision to turn the page on Brexit is also the start of a new age of sanity around the world. Trump will lose. The far right will be beaten back again in France, and then across the whole of Europe.

They think this will mean that western countries will renew their support for Ukraine. Around 85% of Ukrainians believe their country can still win the war.² If US and European leaders back them, they may be right.

There may be other reasons for optimism. There is no doubt we have made too little progress on climate breakdown. But experts say we are starting to catch up.

Renewable energy is expanding at its fastest rate in 30 years. By next year it is expected to overtake coal as the world's top source of electricity.³ In 2018, just 2% of all cars sold were electric; today it is almost one-fifth.³

Global life expectancy has been increasing for decades and is expected to rise by another 4.5 years between now and 2050, from 73.6 years to 78.1.⁵ People are healthier than they have ever been.

And the AI revolution that some feared would lead to waves of job losses, growing discontent, and perhaps even the destruction of humanity is defying expectations. Some evidence suggests it is already greatly improving productivity and enabling people to work shorter hours.⁶ It may even one day free us from the need to work entirely.

Should we be more optimistic?

Yes: After a chaotic few years, the world is getting calmer. It is also becoming healthier and more pleasant to live in. We are finally on the right course.

No: This is merely the eye of the storm. The far right may suffer some setbacks but its beliefs are on the rise all over the world. Our efforts to solve the climate crisis are likely to be too little, too late.

Or... We cannot afford complacencyFeeling of satisfaction with your own work that stops you from trying harder. : humanity is still in big trouble and it will take a lot of work to save it. But at the very least, there is now good reason to think we can solve the challenges we face.