Since 2016, one word has been used to describe Britain over and over: basketcaseA country or organisation that is in severe financial or economic difficulties, especially one that is unable to pay its debts.. International observers said it had voted for disaster, elected a blonde chancer, then replaced him with another who promptly crashed the economy.

Friends and enemies alike were astonished that a country associated with moderation and caution could have changed so suddenly.

In the last fortnight, all that has changed. Britain has a new prime minister, one whose watchword is "sensible government".

Across the sea, in contrast, the European elections gave a boost to the far right. In the US, Donald Trump is on a course for a return to the White House.

And in France voters only narrowly kept the far right out of power. Marine le PenThe leader of the National Rally who has sought to moderate its image and normalise its place in French politics.'s National Rally still topped the national vote, with 37%.¹ And now France faces three years of political chaos.

Many people in Britain are feeling something they have not felt for years: a little flame of optimism.

In their view, it was Brexit that really unleashed the global populistThe term comes from the People's Party, which operated in the USA in the 1890s. Now, it is often used to refer to any movement that makes a distinction between the "people" and the corrupt "establishment". wave. So perhaps, they say, Keir Starmer's decision to turn the page on Brexit is also the start of a new age of sanity around the world.

Trump will lose. The far right will be beaten back again in France, and then across the whole of Europe.

They think that will mean western countries will renew their support for Ukraine. Around 85% of Ukrainians believe their country can still win the war.²

There may be other reasons for optimism. There is no doubt we have made too little progress on climate breakdown. But experts say we are catching up.

Renewable energy is expanding at its fastest rate in 30 years. By next year it is expected to overtake coal as the world's top source of electricity.³

And global life expectancy is expected to rise by another 4.5 years between now and 2050, from 73.6 years to 78.1.⁴

Should we be more optimistic?

Yes: After a chaotic few years, the world is getting calmer. It is also getting healthier and more pleasant to live in.

No: This is merely the eye of the storm. The far right may suffer some setbacks but it is on the rise all over the world. Our efforts to solve the climate crisis are likely to be too little, too late.

Or... We cannot afford complacencyFeeling of satisfaction with your own work that stops you from trying harder. : humanity is still in big trouble and it will take a lot of work to save it. But at the very least, there is now good reason to think we can solve the challenges we face.