After fierce fighting at the beginning of the year, things on the Kherson60 miles northwest of Crimea, it was the first important city to be captured by the Russians. front were relatively quiet - perhaps too quiet. "The pace of shelling has lowered dramatically over the last two months," said Ukrainian army officer Dmytro Pletenchuk.¹ "They are down to 200 to 300 shells per day from 2,000 to 3,000." But was it good news or bad?

While firing is as intense as ever in the battle for BakhmutA city in eastern Ukraine. , elsewhere both sides seem anxious to preserve ammunition for a major fight ahead.

According to The Sunday Times's correspondent Richard Spencer, "Western military planners believe that the Ukrainian army now has enough ammunition for one big push this year - so long as it is used wisely."

If the push fails, the Ukrainians should still have enough resources to hold their original positions. But their ability to try again would depend on the willingness of Western allies, now running out of military supplies, to help them further: "That gives the counteroffensive, whenever it comes, a make-or-break feel."

Ukraine's defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, says it will probably come later this month or next month. A likely scenario would be a southward attack towards the Black Sea to cut the territory occupied by Russia in two.

This, though, could be misinformation. Ukraine's autumn offensive was successful largely because the Russians were fooled into expecting an attack much further south.

Meanwhile, Russia has increased weapon production and mobilised hundreds of thousands of extra soldiers. This suggests that it too could be planning an offensive. But people who expected one to come on the anniversary of the invasion, 24 February, have been proved wrong.

Speculation has been increased by the leaking of up to 100 classified documents from the US Defence Department. The subjects include the training of new Ukrainian brigades, the supply of new equipment by Western allies, and Kyiv's air defences.

There are also estimates of the casualties suffered so far by both sides. These put Russian losses at between 189,500 and 223,000 killed or wounded. The figures for Ukraine are between 124,500 and 131,000.

Neither side seems to be in a strong position, with Ukraine's army desperately short of munitionsMilitary weapons, such as bombs and guns. and Russia's security services riddled with spies. The documents also show the US to be spying on its own allies.

The question is whether the documents are genuine, and if so who leaked them and why.

A senior Western intelligence officer² has called the leak painful. But Ukrainian officials say the documents have been faked or altered, and are intended to create distrust between the country's allies. Research by BellingcatAn investigative journalism group founded in 2014 specialising in fact-checking. found that someone who shared them on a pro-Russian Telegram post had increased the casualty numbers for Ukraine and reduced those for Russia.

It has also been suggested that the documents were created to make the Russians think that the Ukrainians are weaker than they really are.

Yes: The Ukrainian forces are far more highly motivated than the Russians. Their morale is good after the success of their last offensive and they have access to the best Western weapons and intelligence.

No: Both sides have suffered heavy casualties, but the Russians have bigger reserves to draw on. They have plenty of capacity to manufacture more munitions, while Ukraine is running short.  

Or... Neither side can achieve a decisive victory. The war will drag on without any prospect of peace, since Putin needs to have something to show for the invasion but Ukraine will not cede any territory.