After fierce fighting at the beginning of the year, things on the Kherson60 miles northwest of Crimea, it was the first important city to be captured by the Russians. front were relatively quiet. "The pace of shelling has lowered dramatically over the last two months," said one Ukrainian officer.¹ But was it good news or bad?

Both Ukraine and Russia seem anxious to preserve ammunition for a major fight ahead.

According to The Sunday Times, "Western military planners believe that the Ukrainian army now has enough ammunition for one big push this year. So long as it is used wisely."

If the push fails, they might not have enough to try again: "That gives the counteroffensive, whenever it comes, a make-or-break feel."

Ukraine's defence minister says it will probably come later this month or next month.

But this could be a trick. Ukraine's last offensive succeeded largely because the Russians were fooled into expecting an attack much further south.

Meanwhile, Russia has increased weapon production and called up hundreds of thousands of extra soldiers. It too could be planning an offensive.

Speculation has grown because of around 100 secret documents leaked from the US Defence Department. The subjects include the training of new Ukrainian brigades and the supply of new equipment by Western alliesAn ally is someone that aligns with and supports a cause with another individual or group of people..

Neither side seems in a strong position. Ukraine's army is desperately short of munitionsMilitary weapons, such as bombs and guns. , while Russia's security services are riddled with spies. The documents also show the US to be spying on its own allies.

The question is whether the documents are genuine, and if so who leaked them and why.

Ukrainian officials say the documents have been faked or altered, and are intended to create distrust between the country's allies. But it is possible too that the documents were created to make the Russians think that the Ukrainians are weaker than they really are.

Yes: The Ukrainian forces are far more highly motivated than the Russians. Their morale is good after the success of their last offensive and they have access to the best Western weapons and intelligence.

No: Both sides have suffered heavy casualties, but the Russians have bigger reserves to draw on. They have plenty of capacity to manufacture more munitions, while Ukraine is running short.  

Or... Neither side can achieve a decisive victory. The war will drag on without any prospect of peace, since Putin needs to have something to show for the invasion but Ukraine will not cede any territory.