And so here it is: the day America has been awaiting for four years with bated breath. For many, the day to which every one of its 59 previous presidential elections has been leading. The final act, either of Donald Trump's career, or perhaps of American democracy itself.

This morning, it is Trump who seems to have triumphed, leaving America's democratic future hanging in the balance.

The two candidates went into the election almost neck-and-neck in the polls. Although Harris was consistently a couple of points ahead in the popular vote, there was a general conviction that the Electoral CollegeDuring a US presidential election, people vote for electoral college members to represent their state. The number of electoral college votes depends on the population of the state. Then, the members of the electoral college vote to elect the next president. , which decides the winner, would favour Trump. Most observers thought it would be a nail-biter.

But it seems the polls were underestimating Trump for a third electoral cycle, as key rust beltA region of the USA, known for manufacturing, steelmaking and coal, that saw economic decline from the 1950s. It includes a large part of the Midwest. states that had deserted him for Biden in 2020 came back into the Republican fold.

Before the election there was widespread optimism in the Democratic camp. They were certain they were benefiting from a wave of white women. Women of colour vote in overwhelming number for the Democrats at every election, but white women generally split more or less evenly between the parties.¹

This time, however, outraged by Republicans' attacks on abortion rights in recent years, they were expected to come out in massive numbers for Harris. 

We will know in the coming days whether or not this happened, but for now it seems clear any gain in support among white women was cancelled out by the desertion of other important voters from the Democratic coalition.

Harris's support among Arab Americans and Muslim Americans, a key constituency in the vital swing state of Michigan, collapsed as those voters rejected the Democrats in favour of Jill Stein's Green Party, just as they did in the UK election in July.

And, mirroring women's shifting political allegiances, Trump has been bolstered by surprisingly high support among Black and Latino men in key swing states.

Both candidates did themselves few favours in the weeks before the election. At a rally in New York, Trump was preceded on stage by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who let off a stream of racist jokes.

But the Harris campaign found itself under heavy fire as well after former president Bill Clinton made a speech in Michigan defending Israel that many interpreted as racist towards Palestinians and patronising towards Arab Americans.²

Trump is only the second president ever to have been elected to a non-consecutive second term. Many of his opponents fear he may be the last ever to be elected at all.

Some of his own former staff have accused him of harbouring fascist leanings.³ Comments he has made about setting the armed forces on his domestic opponents, as well as the deeply controversial Project 2025 platform that has been linked with his top supporters, have sparked fears that in this term he intends to dismantle US democratic institutions altogether.

And having stacked the Supreme Court in his favour in his first term, he will likely face little judicial resistance. Nothing may be able to stop him turning the most powerful office in the world into the most powerful in history.

Will this election revive democracy?

Yes: Trump's victory can only make Americans who oppose him more concerned for the state of US democracy. They will vigorously oppose everything he does to threaten it. The fight is not over.

No: The election has proved Americans care less about democracy than they do inflation and immigration. It is hard to see where the political will to maintain it might come from.

Or... It is too early to tell whether Trump back in office will be the same as last time or more dictatorial. What is certain is that US democracy has never looked more fragile. Even if this does not destroy it, something else will.