And so here it is: the day America has been awaiting for four years with bated breath. The final act, either of Donald Trump's career, or perhaps of American democracyA system of government based on the idea of rule by the people. itself.

This morning, it is Trump who seems to have triumphed, leaving America's democratic future hanging in the balance.

The two candidates went into the election almost neck and neck in the polls. But it seems they were underestimating Trump for a third electoral cycle, as key battleground states that had deserted him for Biden in 2020 came back into the Republican fold.

Before the election there was widespread optimism in the Democratic camp. They were certain they were benefiting from a wave of white women. Women of colour vote in overwhelming numbers for the Democrats at every election, but white women generally split more or less evenly between the parties.¹

This time, however, outraged by Republicans' attacks on abortion rights in recent years, they were expected to come out in massive numbers for Harris. 

We will know in the coming days whether or not this happened, but for now it seems clear any gain in support among white women was cancelled out by the desertion of other important voters from the Democratic coalition.

Harris's support among Arab Americans and Muslim Americans, a key constituency in the vital swing state of Michigan, seems to have collapsed. Meanwhile, LatinoSomeone who lives in the US and who comes from, or whose family comes from, Latin America. men flocked to Trump.

Trump is only the second president ever to have been elected to a non-consecutive second term. Many of his opponents fear he may be the last ever to be elected at all.

Some of his own former staff have accused him of harbouring fascistFollowing fascism, a set of ideologies that advocates dictatorial power, political violence, suppression of opposition, traditional gender roles, and official racism. leanings.² His comments and proposals have sparked fears that in this term he intends to dismantle US democratic institutions altogether.

Will this election revive democracy?

Yes: Trump's victory can only make Americans who oppose him more concerned for the state of US democracy. They will vigorously oppose everything he does to threaten it. The fight is not over.

No: The election has proved Americans care less about democracy than they do inflation and immigration. It is hard to see where the political will to maintain it might come from.

Or... It is too early to tell whether Trump back in office will be the same as last time or more dictatorial. What is certain is that US democracy has never looked more fragile. Even if this does not destroy it, something else will.