Another day, another assassination attempt. This time, not at a rally, but while Donald Trump was relaxing with a game of golf at his FloridaA coastal state in the south-east of the US, between the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. Though nicknamed "the sunshine state", it also experiences phenomenal rainstorms. home.

The alleged would-be shooter is 58-year-old Ryan Routh. His motivations are not yet known, but those who know him say he is passionate about the cause of Ukraine, and may have hated Trump for his refusal to give the country his backing.¹

The gunman made it to the perimeter fence before he was spotted by Secret ServiceA government agency, intelligence agency, or the activities of a government agency, concerned with the gathering of intelligence data. members. He was reportedly carrying a GoProA type of camera worn on the body. , suggesting he hoped to film and distribute the moment he killed Trump.

For many observers what is worrying about this episode is that it shows how political violence has been normalised in America - which is why some think the US is heading down the same path as Weimar Germany.

In the 1920s, the Weimar RepublicThe government of Germany from 1918 to 1933. was beset with violence. Political parties recruited their own paramilitaryAn unofficial group organised like a military force. groups which numbered in the hundreds of thousands and later even the millions.²

These groups often fought deadly street battles. From 1924 to 1930, 165 people were reported killed in clashes between paramilitary groups in Germany, along with thousands of injuries.³

Assassinations were also common. Between 1918 and 1922 alone, 354 politicians were murdered, most of them on the left.⁴

One reason for the NazisA German political party of the twentieth century, led by Adolf Hitler. The Nazis controlled Germany from the early 1930s until the end of World War II.' rise to power was that they promised to end the chaos and bring order back to the streets.

In the USA, political violence has not yet reached these heights. But there are still concerning signs. In 2020, at least 25 Americans were killed during protests and other forms of political unrest.⁵

And what worries experts is the fact that for many, political violence is rapidly becoming a first response, not a last resort.

Last week, as wild and entirely false rumours spread that HaitianFrom Haiti, a country in the Caribbean Sea. Haiti was the world's first Black-led republic when it became independent from French control and got rid of slavery. migrants in OhioA Midwestern US state, with a population of nearly 12 million. were killing and eating pets, local officials immediately started receiving bomb threats. Haitians in the area found their windows smashed and acid thrown on their cars.⁶

Indeed, a recent survey found 20% of Americans believe violence is always or usually justified to advance a political objective.⁷

This may seem like a small minority, but the lesson from Weimar Germany is that even if only a limited proportion of the population engages in political violence, it can have a spiralling effect. Others take up arms to defend themselves, and voters turn to an authoritarianEnforcing strict obedience to authority. leader who promises to end the chaos.

However, others say this is nothing new in the USA. The country has long been beset with political violence.

In the 1960s dozens of civil rightsRights that protect people's personal freedoms. activists and leaders were murdered. Four of America's presidents have been assassinated, far more than any other developed country. In fact, since 1928, only one president, Dwight EisenhowerThe Republican party president of the USA between 1953 and 1961., has not faced any recorded assassination attempts.

America, they argue, has always been a violent place. This new bout of violence is not a sign it is heading towards dictatorship, but just another chapter in its bloody history.

Is America like pre-war Germany?

Yes: The parallels are clear: violent mobs, political leaders issuing dire threats and an autocraticRelating to a ruler with total power. strongman who promises to end the violence.

No: The Weimar Republic was a young and weak state, unused to democracy, still reeling from the horrors of World War One. The US is rich and stable. It can weather this bout of violence.

Or... The US may have a long history of political violence, but this does not mean it can withstand the instability forever. Future historians may write that the violence of the past foretold a coming autocracy.