One of the many superstitions in British public life is the so-called "curse of the Home OfficeThe government department responsible for immigration, security, law and order. ". In the last 25 years, only one person has lasted longer than three years in the job, the rest all brought down by scandal or sleazeThe name given in British politics to scandals involving MPs' behaviour. Sleaze is often to do with money, but sometimes to do with politicians' private lives..

But even in such company as this, Suella Braverman has managed to set a new record, getting herself sacked from the department twice in just over a year.

The final straw was an article she wrote accusing the police of favouring pro-Palestine protests, which she termed "hate marches".

Braverman is a political enigma. She has the profile of a liberal cosmopolitanHaving a worldwide outlook and taking an interest in many different cultures or ideas.. She studied at the SorbonneA leading university in Paris. , and last year, during a visit by the French interior minister, journalists were impressed to see her speaking to him fluently in his own language.¹

But since entering Parliament in 2015 she has identified with the hard right of the Conservative PartyA British political party. Members are known as Tories.. She backed BrexitThe UK's departure from the European Union. , opposed Theresa May's deal, and fulminated against "cultural MarxismThe left-wing political, economic and philosophical ideas of Karl Marx. ".²

As home secretary, she has been the face of the government's most hardline policies, from the plan to deport asylum seekersPeople who have left their countries due to danger and are seeking refuge elsewhere. permanently to RwandaA country in the centre of Africa. At least 500,000 people were killed in the appalling genocide of 1994. to new laws restricting the right to protest.

She has also constantly pushed the boundaries of the politically acceptable. She proclaimed that multiculturalism has "failed".³ She claimed grooming gangsOrganised criminal gangs that exploit and abuse children. are "almost all British Pakistani", a false claim that experts said fed into a far-right narrative.⁴ Most recently, she described rough sleeping as a "lifestyle choice".

That is why some people think getting sacked was her plan all along. Most observers believe the Conservatives are certain to lose the next election in 2024. There will then be a leadership contest in which Braverman will almost certainly be the standard-bearer of the hard right.

She is one of the most popular politicians in the cabinet, so she would be the favourite to win that race and face Labour Party leader Keir Starmer in 2029.⁵

But would she win that election?

The British public agrees with her on many issues. More than four in ten voters support the plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, with just 25% disagreeing.⁶ Half of the public agreed with her that the ceasefire march should not be allowed to go ahead on Armistice WeekendIn the UK, Armistice Day is remembered every year on 11 November, to mark the end of World War One. .⁷

But this is not the whole story. During her time as home secretary she had an average net disapproval rating of -36%.⁸ Even if large parts of the country agree with her, there is little sign that they like her.

And for a prime minister ideas are not everything. She will also have to defend her record in government. But many experts believe this has been nothing short of disastrous.

She has failed to deport a single person to Rwanda. When she proposed to send asylum seekers to Ascension IslandAn isolated island in the Atlantic Ocean. It is ruled by the British Overseas Territory of Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha. , which has just 806 residents and no hospital, a government source called the plan "completely mad".⁹

And a controversial policy of housing asylum seekers on the Bibby Stockholm barge descended into farce when legionella bacteria was detected aboard and the whole thing had to be evacuated.

Yes: On all the major touchstone issues of the day, Braverman is speaking for the British people. They back her on protests, migration and social issues more generally.

No: What the British people like most is having a grumble about how things are not the way they used to be. In elections, they usually actually vote for quiet moderates.

Or... It does not really matter whether or not she is aligned with the public. What voters want above all is competent governors, not grandstanding on individual populist issues.

Home Office - The government department responsible for immigration, security, law and order.

Sleaze - The name given in British politics to scandals involving MPs' behaviour. Sleaze is often to do with money, but sometimes to do with politicians' private lives.

Cosmopolitan - Having a worldwide outlook and taking an interest in many different cultures or ideas.

Sorbonne - A leading university in Paris.

Conservative party - A British political party. Members are known as Tories.

Brexit - The UK's departure from the European Union.

Marxism - The left-wing political, economic and philosophical ideas of Karl Marx.

Asylum seekers - People who have left their countries due to danger and are seeking refuge elsewhere.

Rwanda - A country in the centre of Africa. At least 500,000 people were killed in the appalling genocide of 1994.

Grooming gangs - Organised criminal gangs that exploit and abuse children.

Armistice Weekend - In the UK, Armistice Day is remembered every year on 11 November, to mark the end of World War One.

Ascension Island - An isolated island in the Atlantic Ocean. It is ruled by the British Overseas Territory of Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha.