One of the many superstitions in British public life is the so-called "curse of the Home OfficeThe government department responsible for immigration, security, law and order. ". In the last 25 years, only one person has lasted longer than three years in the job.

But Suella Braverman has managed to set a new record, getting herself sacked from the department twice in just over a year.

The final straw was an article she wrote accusing the police of favouring pro-PalestineAn area located in the Southern Levant region of Western Asia. protests, which she termed "hate marches".

Braverman is a political enigmaA coding device used by Germany in World War Two, thought to be impossible to crack. It was first decoded by Polish engineers in the 1930s. In 1941, Alan Turing developed a machine that was capable of cracking even its tightest codes.. She studied at the SorbonneA leading university in Paris. , and last year, during a visit by the French interior minister, journalists were impressed to see her speaking to him fluently in his own language.¹

But since entering Parliament in 2015 she has backed BrexitThe UK's departure from the European Union. , opposed Theresa May's deal, and argued strongly against "cultural MarxismThe left-wing political, economic and philosophical ideas of Karl Marx. ".²

She has also constantly pushed the boundaries of the politically acceptable. She proclaimed that multiculturalism has "failed".³ Most recently, she described rough sleeping as a "lifestyle choice".

That is why some people think getting sacked was her plan all along. Most observers believe the Conservatives are certain to lose the next election in 2024 and she will stand to be leader.

She is one of the most popular politicians in the cabinet, so she would be the favourite to win that race and face Labour Party leader Keir Starmer in 2029.⁴

But would she win that election?

The British public agrees with her on many issues. More than four in ten voters support the plan to deport asylum seekersPeople who have left their countries due to danger and are seeking refuge elsewhere. to RwandaA country in the centre of Africa. At least 500,000 people were killed in the appalling genocide of 1994., with just 25% disagreeing.⁵ Half of the public agreed with her that the ceasefireAn end to fighting - often temporary. march should not be allowed to go ahead on Armistice WeekendIn the UK, Armistice Day is remembered every year on 11 November, to mark the end of World War One. .⁶

But this is not the whole story. During her time as home secretary she had an average net disapproval rating of -36%.⁷ Even if the country agrees with her, there is little sign that it likes her.

Yes: On all the major touchstone issues of the day, Braverman is speaking for the British people. They back her on protests, migration and social issues more generally.

No: What the British people like most is having a grumble about how things are not the way they used to be. In elections, they usually actually vote for quiet moderates.

Or... It does not really matter whether or not she is aligned with the public. What voters want above all is competent governors, not grandstanding on individual populist issues.