2024 has been a turbulent year. Some of it was expected. Over 50 countries held elections, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Senegal, Portugal, India, Iran, South Africa, Mexico, Ghana and Ireland. The war in Ukraine rumbled on. AIA computer programme that has been designed to think.  grew more powerful. 

Other stories came as a surprise. Twitter (now X) became a botA computer program that works automatically, often taking the place of a human online. -filled wasteland. The German government collapsed. As did the French - twice. The world faced flood after flood. One in Spain caused at least 219 deaths.¹ The American Atlantic coast was wracked by hurricanes. And the Paris Olympics introduced the world to competitive breakdancing.

Here are five of the year's biggest stories.

1. All change. In May, British prime minister Rishi Sunak called a general election while standing in the pouring rain. It may have been an omen. When Britain went to the polls on 4 July, Sunak was evicted. Fourteen years of rule by the Conservative partyA British political party. Members are known as Tories. came to an abrupt end. Keir Starmer's moderate LabourBritain's main left-of-centre political party. romped to victory, with 402 seats compared to the Conservatives' 121. Starmer promised "national renewal". But his lead in vote numbers was slim - and smaller parties, including the Liberal DemocratsAlso known as the Lib Dems, a liberal political party in the UK. and the right-wing Reform UKA right-wing populist party in the UK. It has support from Nigel Farage and used to be called the Brexit Party., did well.

2. Big bang. Israel's war on HamasA militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK. began last October. But this year it reached a new intensity.  By the end of February, the GazaThe smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, bordered by Israel and Egypt. death toll stood at 30,000²  and 1.1 million people were starving.³ Lebanon's HezbollahA militant organisation based in Lebanon, classified in the UK as a terrorist group. It has made direct attacks on Israel and is believed to have been responsible for assassinating Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri., Yemen's HouthiThe Houthis represent a Shia Muslim minority, but have won support from other Yemenis dissatisfied with the government. and Iran were all drawn into conflict. Arguably the biggest event came on 27 September. Ten days after Israel had exploded pagers and radios used by Hezbollah members, they assassinated the organisation's leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike. The group declared him a martyrA person who is killed due to their beliefs, especially their religious beliefs. .

3. With a vengeance. The run up to the 2024 American presidential election was like nothing seen before. Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt. Joe Biden was forced to stand down in favour of his vice-president Kamala HarrisUS Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden's running mate. If elected, she will be the first female vice president of the USA.. The election campaign was fraught with blizzards of disinformationFalse information intended to mislead, including propaganda, which all too often encourages the spread of misinformation, fake news spread by mistake. It is contrasted with misinformation, which may be spread accidentally. from Trump's camp.⁴ The polls claimed it was too close to call. But when the results came in on 6 November, Trump won a decisive victory. His Republican partyAlso known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, it is one of the USA's two major political parties. Its first president was Abraham Lincoln. It sits on the right of the political spectrum. took control of CongressThe legislative branch of the American government, where elected representatives vote on which laws should be passed. Congress is made up of two chambers: the Senate, which contains two members from each of the 50 states, and the House of Representatives, which has representatives from 435 smaller districts.. The world nervously awaits Trump 2.0.

4. Arab winter. Few expected this. On Sunday 9 December, revolutionaries overthrew Syria's authoritarianEnforcing strict obedience to authority. government. Political prisoners were freed. President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow as militants stormed his palace. Half a century of rule by his family ended overnight. No-one knows what will happen next.

5. New heights. The final big story is yet to come. 2024 is "almost certain" to be the first year on record where average temperatures exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.⁵ The Paris AgreementAn agreement signed by 196 countries to try to limit global warming. threshold has been crossed. Experts thought this might be a result of El NinoA climate pattern that involves the unusual warming of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific ocean. , a regular climate pattern. But when that ended in May, temperatures remained high. Global warming might have reached a point of no return - with untold consequences for the years to come.

Did the world change forever in 2024?

Yes: The world changes forever all the time. It is dumb to pretend otherwise. Yet 2024 was major even by these standards. From Trump's victory to Assad's fall, the world has set on a different course. 

No: It is a sign of the vanity of our age to think that we live in interesting times. But we should discard our recency bias. What seems like big news today might be a footnote in future histories.

Or... It's too early to tell. All these events might be turning points. They may also turn out to be red herrings, or cause more powerful reactions to build in an opposing direction. We will have to wait.